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Author:

Zhang, Yong'an (Zhang, Yong'an.) (Scholars:张永安) | Yan, Binbin (Yan, Binbin.) | Aasma, Memon (Aasma, Memon.)

Indexed by:

EI Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

Deep learning is well-known for extracting high-level abstract features from a large amount of raw data without relying on prior knowledge, which is potentially attractive in forecasting financial time series. Long short-term memory (LSTM) networks are deemed as state-of-the-art techniques in sequence learning, which are less commonly applied to financial time series predictions, yet inherently suitable for this domain. We propose a novel methodology of deep learning prediction, and based on this, construct a deep learning hybrid prediction model for stock markets-CEEMD-PCA-LSTM. In this model, complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD), as a sequence smoothing and decomposition module, can decompose the fluctuations or trends of different scales of time series step by step, generating a series of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) with different characteristic scales. Then, with retaining the most of information on raw data, PCA reduces dimension of the decomposed IMFs component, eliminating the redundant information and improving prediction response speed. After that, high-level abstract features are separately fed into LSTM networks to predict closing price of the next trading day for each component. Finally, synthesizing the predicted values of individual components is utilized to obtain a final predicted value. The empirical results of six representative stock indices from three types of markets indicate that our proposed model outperforms benchmark models in terms of predictive accuracy, i.e., lower test error and higher directional symmetry. Leveraging key research findings, we perform trading simulations to validate that the proposed model outperforms benchmark models in both absolute profitability performance and risk-adjusted profitability performance. Furthermore, model robustness test unveils the more stable robustness compared to benchmark models. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keyword:

Deep learning Principal component analysis Complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition Financial time series Stock market forecasting Long short-term memory

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Zhang, Yong'an]Beijing Univ Technol, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Yan, Binbin]Beijing Univ Technol, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Aasma, Memon]Beijing Univ Technol, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China

Reprint Author's Address:

  • [Yan, Binbin]Beijing Univ Technol, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China

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Source :

EXPERT SYSTEMS WITH APPLICATIONS

ISSN: 0957-4174

Year: 2020

Volume: 159

8 . 5 0 0

JCR@2022

ESI Discipline: ENGINEERING;

ESI HC Threshold:115

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 133

SCOPUS Cited Count: 168

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 9

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