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Author:

Zhao, Wei (Zhao, Wei.) | Zhang, Haoran (Zhang, Haoran.) | Zheng, Jianqin (Zheng, Jianqin.) | Dai, Yuanhao (Dai, Yuanhao.) | Huang, Liqiao (Huang, Liqiao.) | Shang, Wenlong (Shang, Wenlong.) | Liang, Yongtu (Liang, Yongtu.)

Indexed by:

SSCI EI Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

Solar power generation (SPG) is essentially dependent on spatial and meteorological characteristics which makes the planning and operation of power systems difficult. To promote the integration of solar power into electric power grid, accurate prediction of geographically distributed SPG is needed. In this paper, we present a combined method for day-ahead SPG prediction of multi-region photovoltaic (PV) plants. First, automatic machine learning (AML) is applied to generate the most suitable ensemble prediction model with optimal parameters and then an improved genetic algorithm (GA) is implemented which processes the candidate features by assigning appropriate operators. To achieve more accurate forecast results as well as mine the interpretable relationship between SPG and related weather or PV system factors, the SPG physical model is taken into account. The method performance is evaluated by the real SPG data along with meteorological variables of multi-region PV plants in Hokkaido from 2016 to 2018. Results indicate that the combined method provides acceptable accuracy and outperforms several baselines and other methods used for comparison. (c) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keyword:

Multi-region photovoltaic plants Genetic algorithm Automatic machine learning Solar power generation prediction

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Zhao, Wei]China Univ Petr, Beijing Key Lab Urban Oil & Gas Distribut Technol, MOE Key Lab Petr Engn, Natl Engn Lab Pipeline Safety, Fuxue Rd 18, Beijing 102249, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Zheng, Jianqin]China Univ Petr, Beijing Key Lab Urban Oil & Gas Distribut Technol, MOE Key Lab Petr Engn, Natl Engn Lab Pipeline Safety, Fuxue Rd 18, Beijing 102249, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Dai, Yuanhao]China Univ Petr, Beijing Key Lab Urban Oil & Gas Distribut Technol, MOE Key Lab Petr Engn, Natl Engn Lab Pipeline Safety, Fuxue Rd 18, Beijing 102249, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Huang, Liqiao]China Univ Petr, Beijing Key Lab Urban Oil & Gas Distribut Technol, MOE Key Lab Petr Engn, Natl Engn Lab Pipeline Safety, Fuxue Rd 18, Beijing 102249, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Liang, Yongtu]China Univ Petr, Beijing Key Lab Urban Oil & Gas Distribut Technol, MOE Key Lab Petr Engn, Natl Engn Lab Pipeline Safety, Fuxue Rd 18, Beijing 102249, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Zhang, Haoran]Univ Tokyo, Ctr Spatial Informat Sci, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba 2778568, Japan
  • [ 7 ] [Shang, Wenlong]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Metropolitan Transportat, Beijing Key Lab Traff Engn, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China

Reprint Author's Address:

  • [Zheng, Jianqin]China Univ Petr, Beijing Key Lab Urban Oil & Gas Distribut Technol, MOE Key Lab Petr Engn, Natl Engn Lab Pipeline Safety, Fuxue Rd 18, Beijing 102249, Peoples R China;;[Zhang, Haoran]Univ Tokyo, Ctr Spatial Informat Sci, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba 2778568, Japan

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Source :

ENERGY

ISSN: 0360-5442

Year: 2021

Volume: 223

9 . 0 0 0

JCR@2022

ESI Discipline: ENGINEERING;

ESI HC Threshold:87

JCR Journal Grade:1

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 49

SCOPUS Cited Count: 58

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 2

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