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Author:

Zhao, Yan-Gang (Zhao, Yan-Gang.) | Qin, Miao-Jun (Qin, Miao-Jun.) | Lu, Zhao-Hui (Lu, Zhao-Hui.) | Zhang, Long-Wen (Zhang, Long-Wen.)

Indexed by:

Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

This paper proposes a new method for seismic fragility analysis of nuclear power plants (NPPs) considering the uncertainty sources of both ground motions and structural parameters. Based on the conventional seismic fragility model that only contains the uncertainty of ground motions, seismic fragility analysis conditioned on a specific seismic intensity is probabilistically reformulated by further incorporating the uncertainty of structural parameters. To improve the efficiency of the analysis, a point estimation-assisted incremental dynamic analysis was developed for evaluating the seismic fragility model including the uncertainty of structural parameter. The accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method were demonstrated by a single-degree-of-freedom system, where Monte Carlo simulation method is used for comparison. The seismic fragility based on the finite element model of an AP1000 NPP was analyzed using the proposed method. The results reveal that the safety of NPP structure would be overestimated without considering the uncertainty of structural parameter and the influence of the uncertainty of structural parameters on the seismic fragility of NPP presents an upward trend as the damage level increases. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis of different structural parameters reveals that elastic module may have a dominant influence.

Keyword:

Incremental dynamic analysis Point estimation Seismic fragility analysis NPPs Parameter uncertainty

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Zhao, Yan-Gang]Beijing Univ Technol, Key Lab Urban Secur & Disaster Engn, Minist Educ, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Qin, Miao-Jun]Beijing Univ Technol, Key Lab Urban Secur & Disaster Engn, Minist Educ, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Lu, Zhao-Hui]Beijing Univ Technol, Key Lab Urban Secur & Disaster Engn, Minist Educ, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Zhao, Yan-Gang]Kanagawa Univ, Dept Architecture, Kanagawa Ku, 3-27-1 Rokkakubashi, Yokohama, Kanagawa 2218686, Japan
  • [ 5 ] [Zhang, Long-Wen]Hunan Agr Univ, Coll Water Resources & Civil Engn, Changsha, Peoples R China

Reprint Author's Address:

  • [Lu, Zhao-Hui]Beijing Univ Technol, Key Lab Urban Secur & Disaster Engn, Minist Educ, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China

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Source :

RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY

ISSN: 0951-8320

Year: 2021

Volume: 216

8 . 1 0 0

JCR@2022

ESI Discipline: ENGINEERING;

ESI HC Threshold:87

JCR Journal Grade:1

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 38

SCOPUS Cited Count: 41

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 5

Affiliated Colleges:

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