According　to　the　guidance　of　the　national　carbon　peak　target,　the　historical　data　of　greenhouse　gas　(GHG)　emissions　from　primary　aluminum　production　were　calculated　and　analyzed　in　this　study.　A　multi-factor　analysis　model　of　GHG　emissions　from　primary　aluminum　was　established　by　forecasting　the　potential　for　improvement　of　electrolytic　aluminum　production　technology,　power　structure　adjustment　and　recycled　aluminum　production　in　China　for　the　next　15　years.　The　GHG　emission　reduction　and　carbon　peaking　pathways　of　primary　aluminum　production　in　China　were　explored　under　three　scenarios　including　the　baseline　scenario　(BAU),　the　low　improvement　efficiency　scenario　(LIR)　and　the　high　improvement　efficiency　scenario　(HIR).The　results　show　that　the　GHG　emission　potential　of　1　ton　primary　aluminum　production　in　China　illustrated　a　decreasing　trend　over　the　years.　The　potential　of　the　advanced　technology　application　of　aluminum　electrolysis,　the　change　of　electricity　consumption　structure　and　increasing　the　proportion　of　recycled　aluminum　for　the　GHG　emissions　reduction　of　1　ton　aluminum　were　forecasted.　The　GHG　emissions　of　China　primary　aluminum　production　would　peak　in　2030　with　the　BAU　scenario,　while　in　2027　with　the　LIR　scenario　and　in　2021　with　the　HIR　scenario,　respectively.　The　variation　range　of　aluminum　output　in　the　three　scenarios　was　then　given　as　the　limiting　condition　to　ensure　the　peak.　©　2022,　China　Science　Publishing　&　Media　Ltd.　All　right　reserved.