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Author:

Ye, Peijun (Ye, Peijun.) | Chen, Yuanyuan (Chen, Yuanyuan.) | Zhu, Fenghua (Zhu, Fenghua.) | Lv, Yisheng (Lv, Yisheng.) | Lu, Wanze (Lu, Wanze.) | Wang, Fei-Yue (Wang, Fei-Yue.)

Indexed by:

EI Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

Calibration of agent-based models (ABM) is an essential stage when they are applied to reproduce the actual behaviors of distributed systems. Unlike traditional methods that suffer from the repeated trial and error and slow convergence of iteration, this article proposes a new ABM calibration approach by establishing a link between agent microbehavioral parameters and systemic macro-observations. With the assumption that the agent behavior can be formulated as a high-order Markovian process, the new approach starts with a search for an optimal transfer probability through a macrostate transfer equation. Then, each agent's microparameter values are computed using mean-field approximation, where his complex dependencies with others are approximated by an expected aggregate state. To compress the agent state space, principal component analysis is also introduced to avoid high dimensions of the macrostate transfer equation. The proposed method is validated in two scenarios: 1) population evolution and 2) urban travel demand analysis. Experimental results demonstrate that compared with the machine-learning surrogate and evolutionary optimization, our method can achieve higher accuracies with much lower computational complexities.

Keyword:

Mathematical model Calibration Bayes methods Markovian process calibration Machine learning Agent-based model (ABM) Aggregates Computational modeling Optimization

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Ye, Peijun]Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Automat, State Key Lab Management & Control Complex Syst, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Chen, Yuanyuan]Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Automat, State Key Lab Management & Control Complex Syst, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Zhu, Fenghua]Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Automat, State Key Lab Management & Control Complex Syst, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Lv, Yisheng]Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Automat, State Key Lab Management & Control Complex Syst, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Wang, Fei-Yue]Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Automat, State Key Lab Management & Control Complex Syst, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Lu, Wanze]Beijing Univ Technol, Sch Artificial Intelligence & Automat, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 7 ] [Wang, Fei-Yue]Qingdao Acad Intelligent Ind, Parallel Intelligence Res Ctr, Qingdao 266109, Peoples R China
  • [ 8 ] [Wang, Fei-Yue]Macau Univ Sci & Technol, Inst Syst Engn, Macau, Peoples R China

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Source :

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON CYBERNETICS

ISSN: 2168-2267

Year: 2021

Issue: 11

Volume: 52

Page: 11397-11406

1 1 . 8 0 0

JCR@2022

ESI Discipline: COMPUTER SCIENCE;

ESI HC Threshold:87

JCR Journal Grade:1

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 10

SCOPUS Cited Count: 8

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 10

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