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Author:

Li, Bo (Li, Bo.) | Liao, Mengjie (Liao, Mengjie.) | Yuan, Junjing (Yuan, Junjing.) | Zhang, Jian (Zhang, Jian.)

Indexed by:

SSCI Scopus

Abstract:

Predicting consumption behavior is very important for adjusting supplier production plans and enterprise marketing activities. Conventional statistical methods are unable to accurately predict green consumption behavior because it is characterized by multivariate nonlinear interactions. The paper proposes an optimized fruit fly algorithm (FOA) and extreme learning machine (ELM) model for consumption behavior prediction. First, to address the problem of uneven search direction of FOA leading to insufficient search ability and low efficiency, the paper proposes a sector search mechanism instead of a random search mechanism to improve the global search ability and convergence speed of FOA. Second, to address the issue that the initial weights and hidden layer bias values of the ELM are randomly generated, which affects the learning efficiency and generalization of the ELM, the paper uses an improved FOA to optimize the weights and bias values of ELM for improving the prediction accuracy. Taking the green vegetable consumption behavior of Beijing residents as an example, the results show the optimization of the initial weight and threshold of ELM by the GA, PSO, FOA, and SFOA, the prediction accuracy of the GA-ELM, PSO-ELM, FOA-ELM, and SFOA-ELM models all surpass those of ELM. Compared with BPNN, GRNN, ELM, GA-ELM, PSO-ELM, and FOA-ELM models, the RMSE value of SFOA-ELM was decreased by 9.45%, 8.40%, 11.89%, 5.84%, 2.22%, and 2.69%, respectively. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of the SFOA-ELM model in green consumption behavior prediction and provide new ideas for the accurate prediction of consumption behaviors of other green products with similar characteristics.

Keyword:

Improved fruit fly algorithm Green consumption behavior Extreme learning machine Prediction

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Li, Bo]Beijing Informat Sci & Technol Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100192, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Liao, Mengjie]Beijing Informat Sci & Technol Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100192, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Zhang, Jian]Beijing Informat Sci & Technol Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100192, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Li, Bo]Beijing Univ Technol, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Liao, Mengjie]Beijing Key Lab Big Data Decis Making Green Dev, Beijing 100192, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Yuan, Junjing]Beijing Union Univ, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
  • [ 7 ] [Zhang, Jian]Beijing Int Sci & Technol Cooperat Base Intelligen, Beijing 100192, Peoples R China

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Source :

JOURNAL OF RETAILING AND CONSUMER SERVICES

ISSN: 0969-6989

Year: 2023

Volume: 75

ESI Discipline: ECONOMICS & BUSINESS;

ESI HC Threshold:16

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 0

SCOPUS Cited Count: 6

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 14

Affiliated Colleges:

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