Port-hinterland　transport　involves　freight　gathering　and　distribution　between　hinterland　economies　and　ports.　It　is　responsible　for　a　major　portion　of　the　negative　externalities　of　the　entire　port-related　logistic　chain.　This　study　proposes　an　integrated　model　framework　to　facilitate　the　design　of　modal　shift　policy　mixes　to　increase　the　sustainable　performance　of　port-hinterland　transport.　The　integrated　model　framework　consists　of　three　parts:　(1)　an　econometric　model　to　transform　the　hinterland　economic　scenarios　into　changes　in　port　throughput,　(2)　a　system　dynamic　model　to　estimate　the　changes　in　port-hinterland　freight　externalities　due　to　changes　in　port　throughput,　and　(3)　a　Monte　Carlo　simulation　to　identify　those　modal　shift　policy　mixes　with　lower　freight　externalities.　The　proposed　methodology　is　applied　to　Qingdao　Port　and　its　hinterland　freight　transport　in　China.　The　results　show　that　hinterland　economic　growth　will　significantly　raise　port　throughput　and　port-hinterland　transport　externalities.　Four　common　modal　shift　policy　instruments　are　considered,　namely,　internalization　of　external　cost　(IEC)-based　pricing,　road　construction,　increasing　railway　service　level,　and　railway　subsidy.　The　results　show　that　the　policy　mix＇s　efficacy　in　reducing　externalities　increases　with　the　increase　in　freight　demand,　but　the　holistic　effect　of　the　policy　mix　is　lower　than　the　sum　of　the　effects　of　individual　policies　because　these　policies　share　the　goal　of　facilitating　modal　shifts.　The　results　of　Monte　Carlo　simulations　show　that　despite　the　uncertainty　for　hinterland　economic　prospects,　the　policy　mixes　with　better　performance　in　reducing　externalities　commonly　include　IEC-based　pricing　and　increasing　railway　service　level.　The　proposed　methodology　provides　decision　makers　with　a　systematic　framework　for　policy　making　toward　sustainable　port-hinterland　transport.　©　2023　The　Author(s)