Runoff　projections　in　the　Tibetan　Plateau　(TP)　can　provide　a　valuable　basis　for　making　decisions　regarding　water　resource　management　and　facilitating　the　assessment　of　potential　risks　to　water　security.　This　study　estimated　the　runoff　of　the　Tibetan　Plateau　(TP)　at　a　grid　resolution　of　0.5°for　the　near-term　period　(2022–2051)　and　the　long-term　period　(2052–2082)　under　various　climate　scenarios.　A　framework　based　on　long　short-term　memory　(LSTM)　was　used　to　project　the　impact　of　climate　change　on　runoff　by　integrating　input　selection,　LSTM　modelling　and　runoff　projection　application.　This　novel　framework　was　used　to　determine　the　variables　that　contribute　to　runoff　occurrence　in　different　grid　cells,　analyze　the　relationship　between　these　variables　and　runoff,　and　predict　how　runoff　may　change　in　the　future　due　to　precipitation,　temperature,　and　antecedent　runoff　under　various　climate　scenarios.　The　projected　results　showed　that　the　runoff　would　be　approximately　450　mm/a　for　the　period　from　2022　to　2051　and　approximately　465　mm/a　during　the　period　from　2052　to　2082,　representing　an　increase　of　about　46　%　compared　to　the　period　from　1982　to　2012.　Future　runoff　will　increase　in　a　decreasing　pattern　from　the　southwest　to　the　northeast　across　the　TP　region.　These　findings　regarding　the　projected　increase　in　runoff　will　assist　in　the　development　of　proactive　adaptation　strategies　and　support　long-term　economic　growth　through　effective　water　resource　management　plans.　©　2024　Elsevier　B.V.