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Author:

Zhao, J. (Zhao, J..) | Li, X. (Li, X..) | Chen, S. (Chen, S..) | Liu, C. (Liu, C..)

Indexed by:

Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

Rapid and precise quantification of economic losses post-earthquake is critical for crafting informed disaster management strategies by governmental and insurance entities. This study introduces an ensemble model, constituted by Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), tailored for quick and interpretative prediction of GDP-related seismic loss assessments, with Sichuan Province serving as the empirical backdrop. The ensemble approach, pre-trained for expediency, draws on a knowledge-driven selection of 30 features that span seismic risks, socio-economic variables, and exposure factors. Enhanced by feature scaling and Bayesian hyperparameter optimization, the model's efficacy is validated through 6 metrics such as R-Squared, MSE, and MAE etc. The incorporation of SHAP values further unravels the model's decision-making, providing transparency to the often opaque computations of machine learning. This methodology offers a scalable, interpretable framework that equips stakeholders with timely and accurate insights for risk mitigation, ultimately strengthening earthquake resilience. © 2024

Keyword:

Earthquake economic loss Machine learning Earthquake and socioeconomic interaction Disaster management

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Zhao J.]Faculty of Urban Construction, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
  • [ 2 ] [Li X.]State Key Laboratory of Bridge Engineering Safety and Resilience, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
  • [ 3 ] [Chen S.]State Key Laboratory of Bridge Engineering Safety and Resilience, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
  • [ 4 ] [Liu C.]China Re Catastrophe Risk Management Company LTD., Chongqing, China

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Source :

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

ISSN: 2212-4209

Year: 2024

Volume: 106

5 . 0 0 0

JCR@2022

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 0

SCOPUS Cited Count: 5

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 4

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