To　systematically　analyze　the　variations　in　the　Qinghai　Lake　stage　under　climate　change　and　the　related　influence　mechanism,　this　paper　presents　a　quantitative　analysis　of　the　spatiotemporal　changes　in　the　hydrological　and　meteorological　factors　of　the　lake　basin,　using　a　combination　of　time　series　analysis,　a　geostatistical　interpolation　method,　and　correlation　analysis　based　on　the　data　collected　at　the　observation　stations　over　the　basin　during　1956-2020.　We　use　the　global　climate　model　to　estimate　the　varying　trends　of　precipitation　and　lake　stage　under　different　scenarios.　The　results　show　that　during　the　past　50　years,　the　stage　and　surface　area　of　the　lake　presented　a　general　trend　of　decreasing　first　and　then　increasing,　while　an　increasing　trend　occurred　in　runoff,　precipitation　and　temperature,　and　a　decreasing　trend　in　evaporation.　The　lake　stage　was　affected　significantly　by　runoff,　precipitation,　temperature　and　evaporation;　the　correlation　coefficients　were　as　high　as　0.95,　0.92,　0.88　and　0.81,　respectively.　We　project　that　from　2021　to　2040,　the　lake　stage　will　take　a　rising　trend,　showing　annual　average　rising　rates　of　0.218,　0.187,　0.125　and　0.132　m/a　under　four　different　scenarios.　Quantitative　analysis　of　the　lake　behaviors　under　climate　change　in　this　study　lays　a　basis　for　future　studies　on　the　water　cycling　mechanism　of　plateau　lakes.　©　2024　Tsinghua　University.　All　rights　reserved.