The　development　of　renewable　energy　is　indispensable　to　promoting　the　low-carbon　transition　of　power　systems.　Nevertheless,　it　also　brings　uncertainty　to　the　reliability　of　power　systems.　Herein,　the　panel　model　and　panel　threshold　model　are　established　based　on　the　provincial　data　in　China　from　2012　to　2020.　The　results　reveal　that　the　negative　effect　of　renewable　energy　development　(RED)　on　power　supply　reliability　(PSR)　is　gradually　lessening.　If　the　development　of　renewable　energy　is　a　rational　way,　power　supply　reliability　can　be　improved.　Additionally,　energy-exporting　regions　bear　more　risks　of　RED　than　energy-importing　regions.　If　the　coal　prices　are　stable　and　natural　disasters　are　manageable,　the　RED　can　enhance　the　PSR.　However,　if　they　are　not　stable　or　controllable,　a　high　proportion　of　renewable　energy　in　the　power　system　could　cause　even　more　severe　problems　with　PSR.　Based　on　these　critical　results,　some　suggestions　are　made　to　promote　the　formation　of　a　new　power　system.　©　The　Author(s),　under　exclusive　licence　to　Springer-Verlag　GmbH　Germany,　part　of　Springer　Nature　2024.