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Author:

Li, Wenjing (Li, Wenjing.) | Liu, Yonglei (Liu, Yonglei.) | Chen, Zhiqian (Chen, Zhiqian.)

Indexed by:

EI Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

Derived from an effective strategy - direct and multiple-input multiple-output strategy, a modular neural network based on a bi-level particle swarm optimization algorithm (BLPSO-MNN) is proposed in the present study to improve the accuracy for multi-step time series prediction. While a binary particle swarm optimization algorithm is designed for the external layer to optimize the task division of prediction horizons, a multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm is designed for the internal layer to trade off between the prediction accuracy and structural complexity for each subnetwork in modular neural network. Besides, a set of fuzzy If-Then rules is proposed to determine the historical information to be input to subnetworks. Thus, the structure of BLPSO-MNN, including the number of modules as well as the subnetwork structure, is self-determined accordingly. Numerous experiments are conducted for 18-step-ahead time series prediction to evaluate the performance of BLPSO-MNN. Experimental results show that, although the prediction accuracy decreases when the prediction horizon is large, the overall performance of BLPSO-MNN is superior over all comparative models with greater improvement for larger horizons, indicating it is suitable for a long-term prediction. Besides, the set of fuzzy rules balances the prediction accuracy against the structural complexity caused by the subnetwork inputs.

Keyword:

Self-determined structure Fuzzy rule Modular neural network Bi-level particle swarm optimization Multi-step time series prediction

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Li, Wenjing]Beijing Univ Technol, Fac Informat Technol, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Liu, Yonglei]Beijing Univ Technol, Fac Informat Technol, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Chen, Zhiqian]Beijing Univ Technol, Fac Informat Technol, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Li, Wenjing]Beijing Inst Artificial Intelligence, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Liu, Yonglei]Beijing Inst Artificial Intelligence, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Chen, Zhiqian]Beijing Inst Artificial Intelligence, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 7 ] [Li, Wenjing]Beijing Key Lab Computat Intelligence & Intelligen, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 8 ] [Liu, Yonglei]Beijing Key Lab Computat Intelligence & Intelligen, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 9 ] [Chen, Zhiqian]Beijing Key Lab Computat Intelligence & Intelligen, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 10 ] [Li, Wenjing]Beijing Lab Intelligent Environm Protect, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 11 ] [Liu, Yonglei]Beijing Lab Intelligent Environm Protect, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 12 ] [Chen, Zhiqian]Beijing Lab Intelligent Environm Protect, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China

Reprint Author's Address:

  • [Li, Wenjing]Beijing Univ Technol, Fac Informat Technol, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China;;[Li, Wenjing]Beijing Inst Artificial Intelligence, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China;;[Li, Wenjing]Beijing Key Lab Computat Intelligence & Intelligen, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China;;[Li, Wenjing]Beijing Lab Intelligent Environm Protect, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China;;

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Source :

APPLIED INTELLIGENCE

ISSN: 0924-669X

Year: 2024

Issue: 17-18

Volume: 54

Page: 8612-8633

5 . 3 0 0

JCR@2022

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count:

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 9

Affiliated Colleges:

Online/Total:682/10709499
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