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Abstract:
Crash risk analysis has been conducted to investigate the crash mechanisms and analyze the contributing factors from the aspects of traffic operation and geometric design perspectives. Using Yongtaiwen freeway rear-end crashes, traffic flow, and road alignment data, this study focused on investigating the heterogeneous impact of different contributing factors on crash risk. Aiming at investigating the heterogeneous effects of geometric characteristics on crash risk, a Latent Class Analysis (LCA) method is proposed to classify the samples. Aiming at studying the heterogeneous effects of traffic operational states on crash risk, a Latent Profile Analysis (LPA) method is proposed to classify the samples. Based on the classified homogeneous subgroups of crashes, logit models were used to study the relationship between microscopic traffic flow variables and crash risk. In addition, a latent class logit (LCL) model was also developed to simultaneously analyze the heterogeneous effects of geometric design features and traffic operational states on crash risk. The modeling results showed that the LCA + logit model has better classification results and prediction performance than the LPA +logit model or the LCL model, demonstrating that the heterogeneous effect of geometric design characteristics of the road segment had better prediction accuracy in crash risk analysis. © The Institution of Engineering & Technology 2023.
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Year: 2023
Issue: 41
Volume: 2023
Page: 24-30
Language: English
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ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All
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Chinese Cited Count:
30 Days PV: 13
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