Achieving　＂dual　carbon＂　targets　by　containing　carbon　emissions　while　sustaining　economic　growth　is　challenging.　This　study　examines　the　varying　carbon　dependency　levels　among　China＇s　30　provincial-level　administrative　units,　considering　spatial　correlations　in　emissions.　Using　a　semi-parametric　varying　coefficient　spatial　autoregressive　panel　model　on　2004-2019　panel　data,　this　study　shows　the　following:　(i)　The　relationship　between　economic　growth　and　carbon　emissions　forms　an　＂S＂-shaped　curve,　with　the　contribution　decreasing　as　tertiary　industry　grows,　defining　three　stages　of　carbon　dependency.　(ii)　There　is　significant　heterogeneity　in　carbon　dependency　across　provinces,　with　some　advancing　to　＂weak　dependency＂　or　an　＂economic　carbon　peak＂　due　to　advantages　and　policies.　(iii)　Dependency　levels　shift　over　time,　with　＂weak　dependency＂　being　the　predominant　stage,　though　transitions　occur.　(iv)　A　positive　spatial　spillover　effect　in　emissions　was　noted.　This　study　recommends　tailored　policies　for　each　provincial-level　administrative　unit　based　on　their　carbon　dependency　and　development　stage.