County-level　units　play　a　pivotal　role　in　harmonising　economic　activities　with　ecological　and　environmental　conservation　efforts.　Analysing　the　NDVI　at　the　county　level　yields　precise　data　for　guiding　regional　environmental　conservation　initiatives　and　fostering　sustainable　development.　In　this　study,　an　integrated　spatiotemporal　NDVI　change　assessment　model　was　proposed　for　vegetation　cover　evolution　analysis　and　driving　factor　quantification　under　a　county-level　perspective　combined　with　the　Sen　and　Mann-Kendall　test,　OPGD,　and　MGWR.　This　model　was　applied　to　a　case　study　in　Shandong　Province,　China,　covering　137　counties　from　2000　to　2020.　The　results　reveal　a　general　decline　in　vegetation　NDVI　between　2000　to　2020,　with　only　13%　of　the　whole　area　in　central　and　northern　regions　showing　an　increasing　trend.　The　key　elements　driving　the　shift　in　NDVI　were　evaporation,　land　use/cover,　and　net　primary　productivity.　The　vegetation　became　increasingly　reliant　on　both　human　activities　and　natural　influences.　These　findings　improve　our　understanding　of　the　connection　between　the　environment　and　vegetation　in　the　study　area　and　constitute　a　crucial　guide　for　managing　regional　ecosystems.　©　2024　Informa　UK　Limited,　trading　as　Taylor　&　Francis　Group.