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Author:

Hu, Xinle (Hu, Xinle.) | Xiao, Yaqiu (Xiao, Yaqiu.) | Wu, Nianyuan (Wu, Nianyuan.) | Tan, Jiawei (Tan, Jiawei.) | Miao, Huiquan (Miao, Huiquan.) | Wang, Meng (Wang, Meng.) | Jing, Rui (Jing, Rui.) | Zhao, Yingru (Zhao, Yingru.)

Indexed by:

EI Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

Though seismic hazards are infrequent, their occurrence can lead to severe destruction. To understand how lowprobability, high-impact seismic hazards would affect the stability of integrated energy systems (IES), this paper develops a seismic-resilient integrated energy system (SRIES) design optimization model. The model employs a bi-level Monte Carlo method to capture the low probability of seismic scenarios, monetize the hazard damage, and stochastically optimize IES design and operation. A representative case study in Fujian Province, a region frequently affected by seismic activity in the Taiwan Strait, reveals that: (1) incorporating seismic hazards into IES design leads to a 2% increase in net present cost, with 98% of this increment attributed to hazard-induced unmet energy demands; (2) as the resilience requirement increases, the investment-effectiveness for resilience reinforcement initially rises and then declines, indicating a clear turning point between the costs of resilience reinforcement and its associated benefits; (3) among all technologies within an IES, the electricity grid and combined heating and power (CHP) contribute the most to the system's resilience. Overall, this study is expected to provide quantitative insights for the seismic-resilient design of IES.

Keyword:

Monte Carlo Seismic hazards Low probability high impact Stochastic optimization Fragility curves

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Hu, Xinle]Xiamen Univ, Coll Energy, Xiamen 361002, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Xiao, Yaqiu]Xiamen Univ, Coll Energy, Xiamen 361002, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Wu, Nianyuan]Xiamen Univ, Coll Energy, Xiamen 361002, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Tan, Jiawei]Xiamen Univ, Coll Energy, Xiamen 361002, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Jing, Rui]Xiamen Univ, Coll Energy, Xiamen 361002, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Zhao, Yingru]Xiamen Univ, Coll Energy, Xiamen 361002, Peoples R China
  • [ 7 ] [Miao, Huiquan]Beijing Univ Technol, Key Lab Urban Secur & Disaster Engn, Minist Educ, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 8 ] [Wang, Meng]UCL, Inst Environm Design & Engn, London, England
  • [ 9 ] [Jing, Rui]Xiamen Univ, Shenzhen Res Inst, Shenzhen 518000, Peoples R China

Reprint Author's Address:

  • [Jing, Rui]Xiamen Univ, Coll Energy, Xiamen 361002, Peoples R China

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Source :

APPLIED ENERGY

ISSN: 0306-2619

Year: 2025

Volume: 383

1 1 . 2 0 0

JCR@2022

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count:

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 8

Affiliated Colleges:

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