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Author:

Zeng, Shihong (Zeng, Shihong.) | Zhang, Xinwei (Zhang, Xinwei.) | Wang, Xiaowei (Wang, Xiaowei.) | Zeng, Guowang (Zeng, Guowang.)

Indexed by:

SSCI Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

Currently, China's aging population, high savings rate and high housing asset prices coexist, which has become a hot issue in academic research. First, considering the life-cycle hypothesis and overlapping generations model, asset prices are negatively correlated with the population dependency ratio and positively correlated with household savings. Second, based on census data from prefecture-level cities, a pooled regression model and two-stage least squares (2SLS) are used in this empirical research. The child dependency ratio was found to have a significant negative impact on housing prices, while the elderly dependency ratio had a positive impact on housing prices. The positive relationship between household savings and housing prices is highly significant. Finally, the interaction analysis shows that the impact of population aging on housing prices differs under different levels of household savings; thus, population aging affects housing prices through household savings, and the mediator dilutes and weakens this impact. The elderly generation's release of savings could gradually inhibit housing prices. Population aging causes long-run downside risks but not a market meltdown.

Keyword:

population structures asset prices household savings commodity housing prices

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Zeng, Shihong]Beijing Univ Technol, Appl Econ Dept, Coll Econ & Management, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Zhang, Xinwei]Beijing Univ Technol, Appl Econ Dept, Coll Econ & Management, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Zeng, Shihong]Beijing Univ Technol, Beijing City Sub Ctr Inst, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Zeng, Shihong]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Econ & Management, Finance & Econ Dev Res Ctr, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Zhang, Xinwei]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Econ & Management, Finance & Econ Dev Res Ctr, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Wang, Xiaowei]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Econ & Management, Finance & Econ Dev Res Ctr, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 7 ] [Zeng, Guowang]LUISS Univ, Appl Management & Comp Sci Management Dept, I-00197 Rome, Italy

Reprint Author's Address:

  • [Zeng, Guowang]LUISS Univ, Appl Management & Comp Sci Management Dept, I-00197 Rome, Italy

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Source :

SUSTAINABILITY

Year: 2019

Issue: 11

Volume: 11

3 . 9 0 0

JCR@2022

ESI Discipline: ENVIRONMENT/ECOLOGY;

ESI HC Threshold:167

JCR Journal Grade:2

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 13

SCOPUS Cited Count:

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 0

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