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Author:

Hou, B. (Hou, B..) | Li, X. (Li, X..) | Liu, A. (Liu, A..) | Du, X. (Du, X..)

Indexed by:

Scopus CSCD CSSCI

Abstract:

This paper describes an importance sampling Monte Carlo (MC) simulation model for the failure probability calculation of networks with high reliability. First, an evolution process algorithm for network connectivity judgment with imperfect nodes and arcs is proposed. Random numbers generated in each simulation were transformed into repair time of network elements (arcs and nodes) according to the elements' reliability. The network connectivity topology is constructed by the order of repair times, which is treated as the evolution process of network connectivity. Next, network failure probabilities of 2\K\All terminal problems are calculated by importance sampling Monte Carlo (ISMC) simulation. The importance sampling function of ISMC is evaluated by a multi-criteria iterative method based on the evolution process algorithm and cross entropy model. Finally, the proposed model is illustrated and tested by benchmark networks. Testing results of network with high reliability show that the number of iterations required by the multi-criteria iterative method is about one fortieth of that number of exist method when solving the importance sampling function. Therefore, the proposed model is efficient for networks models with high reliability. © 2016, Editorial Board of Journal of Systems Engineering Society of China. All right reserved.

Keyword:

Cross entropy; Evolution process; Imperfect nodes and arcs; Importance sampling; Network reliability

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Hou, B.]Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, 100081, China
  • [ 2 ] [Hou, B.]Key Laboratory of Urban Security and Disaster Engineering of Ministry of Education, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, 100124, China
  • [ 3 ] [Li, X.]Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, 100081, China
  • [ 4 ] [Li, X.]Key Laboratory of Urban Security and Disaster Engineering of Ministry of Education, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, 100124, China
  • [ 5 ] [Liu, A.]Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, 100081, China
  • [ 6 ] [Du, X.]Key Laboratory of Urban Security and Disaster Engineering of Ministry of Education, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, 100124, China

Reprint Author's Address:

  • [Li, X.]Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake AdministrationChina

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Source :

System Engineering Theory and Practice

ISSN: 1000-6788

Year: 2016

Issue: 7

Volume: 36

Page: 1837-1847

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count: 2

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 3

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