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Author:

Li, Jian (Li, Jian.) | Xu, Zhenjing (Xu, Zhenjing.) | Xu, Huijuan (Xu, Huijuan.) | Tang, Ling (Tang, Ling.) | Yu, Lean (Yu, Lean.)

Indexed by:

SSCI EI Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

With the rapid development of the Internet and big data technologies, a rich of online data (including news releases) can helpfully facilitate forecasting oil price trends. Accordingly, this study introduces sentiment analysis, a useful big data analysis tool, to understand the relevant information of online news articles and formulate an oil price trend prediction method with sentiment. Three main steps are included in the proposed method, i.e., sentiment analysis, relationship investigation and trend prediction. In sentiment analysis, the sentiment (or tone) is extracted based on a dictionary-based approach to capture the relevant online information concerning oil markets and the driving factors. In relationship investigation, the Granger causality analysis is conducted to explore whether and how the sentiment impacts oil price. In trend prediction, the sentiment is used as an important independent variable, and some popular forecasting models, e.g., logistic regression, support vector machine, decision tree and back propagation neural network, are performed. With crude oil futures prices of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and news articles of the Thomson Reuters as studying samples, the empirical results statistically support the powerful predictive power of sentiment for oil price trends and hence the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keyword:

oil price text mining trend prediction big data Sentiment analysis online news

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Li, Jian]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Econ & Management, Res Base Beijing Modern Mfg Dev, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Xu, Zhenjing]Beijing Univ Chem Technol, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Xu, Huijuan]Beijing Univ Chem Technol, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Yu, Lean]Beijing Univ Chem Technol, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Tang, Ling]Beihang Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100191, Peoples R China

Reprint Author's Address:

  • [Tang, Ling]Beihang Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100191, Peoples R China

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Source :

ASIA-PACIFIC JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH

ISSN: 0217-5959

Year: 2017

Issue: 2

Volume: 34

1 . 4 0 0

JCR@2022

ESI Discipline: ENGINEERING;

ESI HC Threshold:165

CAS Journal Grade:4

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 20

SCOPUS Cited Count: 25

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 7

Online/Total:557/10704371
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