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学者姓名：穆献中
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Abstract ：
Logistic预测模型在能源预测领域有广泛的应用,但Logistic原模型的能源产量、储量等预测结果与实际值差异较大.其原因是在大多研究中将Logistic原模型中的"环境容量"和"种群内禀增长率"两个参数假设为常量,而实际上这两个参数是随时间变化的.本文通过将这两个常量参数函数化以改进模型.基于奇异摄动相关理论,使用匹配展开法设计了模型参数求解方法.以中国天然气历年的可采储量和产量数据进行实证研究,并与几种常用预测模型对比,验证改进模型的预测能力.结果表明,相较于Logistic原模型,改进后的模型明显地提高了预测精确度.最后运用改进的Logistic模型预测了我国 2019-2036 年的天然气产量,在 2028 年天然气产量达到峰值为3311.3 亿立方米.
Keyword ：
奇异摄动 奇异摄动 天然气 天然气 产量预测 产量预测 匹配展开法 匹配展开法 Logistic模型改进 Logistic模型改进
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| GB/T 7714 | 涂闯 , 穆献中 , 胡广文 et al. 基于Logistic改进模型的中国天然气产量预测 [J]. | 管理评论 , 2023 , 35 (1) : 89-96 . |
| MLA | 涂闯 et al. "基于Logistic改进模型的中国天然气产量预测" . | 管理评论 35 . 1 (2023) : 89-96 . |
| APA | 涂闯 , 穆献中 , 胡广文 , 陈健 . 基于Logistic改进模型的中国天然气产量预测 . | 管理评论 , 2023 , 35 (1) , 89-96 . |
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Abstract ：
Distributed hybrid energy systems are innovative means of effectively addressing energy and environmental issues in the age of carbon neutrality. This paper proposes the distributed energy hierarchical network planning model for distributed energy systems at the community level, which combines distributed energy planning and renewable energy use. This model incorporates the energy flow between nodes and line length into the optimization objective and analyzes its capability to improve the stability and cost-effectiveness of the network. A community is selected as an example, and the model is compared with single-layer network planning and node distance planning. The stability of the distributed energy hierarchical network planning model is demonstrated by the network efficiency, the node degree distribution in the low-value region and the relatively small number of effective connection edges. The total line length of the model decreases by 22% compared to the single-layer plan and by 43% compared to the node distance plan. By optimizing the topological connection structure of the network, the total length of transmission lines in energy communities can be significantly reduced, which affects line construction costs and transmission losses, and therefore, saving money on the operation and maintenance of power lines as well as management costs.
Keyword ：
Distributed energy Distributed energy Energy community Energy community Net-zero emissions Net-zero emissions Hierarchical network planning Hierarchical network planning
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| GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Zheng , Mu, Xianzhong , Tu, Chuang et al. Hierarchical network planning of distributed renewable energy in a net-zero energy community [J]. | CLEAN TECHNOLOGIES AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY , 2023 , 25 (5) : 1643-1658 . |
| MLA | Zhang, Zheng et al. "Hierarchical network planning of distributed renewable energy in a net-zero energy community" . | CLEAN TECHNOLOGIES AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY 25 . 5 (2023) : 1643-1658 . |
| APA | Zhang, Zheng , Mu, Xianzhong , Tu, Chuang , Sun, Zheren , Hu, Guangwen . Hierarchical network planning of distributed renewable energy in a net-zero energy community . | CLEAN TECHNOLOGIES AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY , 2023 , 25 (5) , 1643-1658 . |
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Abstract ：
Urban residential expenditure describes the end demand of urban system, we construct a framework that in-corporates the urban residential expenditure and sectoral energy consumption to reveal the interactive mech-anism, and clarify how these indicators are influencing each other. A fuzzy cognition map that consists of 8 consumer expenditures, 19 production sectors and 1 household sector's direct energy consumption is built. Genetic algorithm is introduced to solve the weight of the fuzzy cognition map to explore the interactive rela-tionship between urban residents' expenditure and energy consumption of production sectors. Taking the data of Beijing from 2006 to 2017 as an example, results suggest that: residents' food expenditure has a negative impact on energy consumption in various industries, especially in the agricultural sector; residential expenditure has the greatest positive impact on energy consumption in manufacturing and real estate industries; the financial sector and public manage and social organization sector, and the residents' food expenditure and traffic and tele-communications expenditure have the greatest impact on Beijing's energy consumption. It is revealed that policies regarding to controlling or changing residents' spending behavior, including food, traffic and tele-communication, will effectively contribute to reducing Beijing's sectoral energy consumption. This paper pro-vides quantitative evidence for urban energy conservation focused policies.
Keyword ：
Interactive relationship Interactive relationship Fuzzy cognitive map Fuzzy cognitive map Genetic algorithm Genetic algorithm Resident's expenditure Resident's expenditure Sectors' energy consumption Sectors' energy consumption
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| GB/T 7714 | Tu, Chuang , Mu, Xianzhong , Chen, Jian et al. Study on the interactive relationship between urban residents' expenditure and energy consumption of production sectors [J]. | ENERGY POLICY , 2021 , 157 . |
| MLA | Tu, Chuang et al. "Study on the interactive relationship between urban residents' expenditure and energy consumption of production sectors" . | ENERGY POLICY 157 (2021) . |
| APA | Tu, Chuang , Mu, Xianzhong , Chen, Jian , Kong, Li , Zhang, Zheng , Lu, Yutong et al. Study on the interactive relationship between urban residents' expenditure and energy consumption of production sectors . | ENERGY POLICY , 2021 , 157 . |
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Abstract ：
The coordination of economy, energy, and environment plays an important role for cities seeking green transformation and sustainable development. However, poor information and equivocal data are what often face the related analysis. In this paper, the correlation and synergy of the urban economy-energy-environment system are analyzed. First, the Grey relational analysis and entropy weight method are combined and introduced to analyze the correlation degree in the indicator level and the subsystem level of the 3E system. Then, the concepts of ordinal parameter and comprehensive correlation degree are introduced, to evaluate the ordering degree of subsystems and the synergy degree of compound systems. Finally, the data of Beijing from 2008 to 2017 are used for empirical study. Results suggest that a fluctuating tendency of low synergy or none synergy is observed in the Beijing 3E system. Furthermore, the improvement of the energy subsystem displays dominant effects on the coordinated development of compound systems, and the technological innovation and structural optimization in industries could help to improve the Beijing economy-energy-environment system.
Keyword ：
synergy analysis synergy analysis correlation degree analysis correlation degree analysis ordering degree analysis ordering degree analysis urban economic-energy-environment system urban economic-energy-environment system Beijing Beijing
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| GB/T 7714 | Mu, Xianzhong , Kong, Li , Tu, Chuang et al. Correlation and synergy analysis of urban economy-energy-environment system-A case study of Beijing [J]. | NATURAL RESOURCE MODELING , 2021 , 35 (1) . |
| MLA | Mu, Xianzhong et al. "Correlation and synergy analysis of urban economy-energy-environment system-A case study of Beijing" . | NATURAL RESOURCE MODELING 35 . 1 (2021) . |
| APA | Mu, Xianzhong , Kong, Li , Tu, Chuang , Chen, Jian , Hu, Guangwen . Correlation and synergy analysis of urban economy-energy-environment system-A case study of Beijing . | NATURAL RESOURCE MODELING , 2021 , 35 (1) . |
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Abstract ：
With Beijing & rsquo;s energy demand shifting to the household side in the past decade, uncovering the driving factors of Beijing & rsquo;s energy consumption plays an essential role for policy design. To this end, the structural changes in Beijing & rsquo;s residential and productive energy consumption are decomposed using the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method in this paper. Empirical analysis is conducted focusing on Beijing & rsquo;s energy changes during 2009-2018. Results suggest that: (1) The contribution of residential energy consumption has exceeded that of the productive sector, meanwhile the expected decrease in both sectors & rsquo; energy consumption are not observed considering the energy efficiency improvements; (2) The optimization of Beijing & rsquo;s energy consumption cannot solely rely on the technical development, the influence due to the upgrade of industrial structure in Beijing also matters, especially after 2011; (3) In the residential sector, all factors display stronger impacts on energy consumption changes in urban areas than in rural areas, among which the living standard is the most significant. Based on these results, suggestions are provided to promote the decrease of Beijing & rsquo;s energy consumption. (c) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keyword ：
Driving factors Driving factors LMDI LMDI Beijing Beijing Energy consumption Energy consumption
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| GB/T 7714 | Kong Li , Mu Xianzhong , Hu Guangwen . A decomposing analysis of productive and residential energy consumption in Beijing [J]. | ENERGY , 2021 , 226 . |
| MLA | Kong Li et al. "A decomposing analysis of productive and residential energy consumption in Beijing" . | ENERGY 226 (2021) . |
| APA | Kong Li , Mu Xianzhong , Hu Guangwen . A decomposing analysis of productive and residential energy consumption in Beijing . | ENERGY , 2021 , 226 . |
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Abstract ：
The undergoing rapid urbanization is bringing dramatic economic development and social improvement for cities, but also a series of problems associated with the urban energy metabolism, which hinders the transition toward a carbon-neutral society. Optimizing the energy metabolic processes has been one of the key solutions to cure the metropolis disease that are caused by the enormous energy throughputs in urban areas. This paper highlights the heterogeneity of components in urban energy metabolic system and evaluates the related impacts on urban energy metabolism based on gravity model. Using the data from Beijing's 17 sectors during 2005 similar to 2018, in combination with the "de-coalification" and "non-capital function dispersal" policies in Beijing, this paper testifies that each sector has different impacts on Beijing's energy metabolism and conducted the scenario analysis based on Beijing's recent supply and demand side control policies. It is found that the supply control policies are losing the effectiveness on Beijing's energy metabolism, and may even cause energy shortage up to 0.09 mtce; the demand-control policies can reduce the total energy consumptions up to 1.44 mtce, and improve the energy metabolic processes in the manufacture and education sectors, but will increase the energy consumption in the transportation and wholesale trade sectors. The method proposed in this paper expands the analytical framework for the optimization of urban energy metabolic system, and the results provide suggestions for the policy making of urban carbon-neutral transition.
Keyword ：
Non-capital function dispersal Non-capital function dispersal Gravity model Gravity model Heterogenous impacts Heterogenous impacts Scenario analysis Scenario analysis Urban energy metabolism Urban energy metabolism
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| GB/T 7714 | Tu, Chuang , Mu, Xianzhong , Wu, Yufeng et al. Heterogenous impacts of components in urban energy metabolism: evidences from gravity model [J]. | ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY , 2021 , 24 (8) : 10089-10117 . |
| MLA | Tu, Chuang et al. "Heterogenous impacts of components in urban energy metabolism: evidences from gravity model" . | ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY 24 . 8 (2021) : 10089-10117 . |
| APA | Tu, Chuang , Mu, Xianzhong , Wu, Yufeng , Gu, Yifan , Hu, Guangwen . Heterogenous impacts of components in urban energy metabolism: evidences from gravity model . | ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY , 2021 , 24 (8) , 10089-10117 . |
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Abstract ：
近年来,通过对钢铁行业落后产能淘汰、超低排放改造、环保督察巡查、标准规范制定、清洁生产改造等多项持续性举措,有力推动了行业低碳绿色转型、市场供需平衡与盈利水平提升。通过与国际对标发现,我国重点大中型钢企绿色发展绩效达到世界先进水平。但当前钢铁行业仍面临"东重西轻""北高南低"、环保"两级分化"、产能基数不准等问题,需要持续发挥环境政策引导作用,以环保倒逼产业布局与结构优化,加大环保节能技术研发投入,推动钢铁行业高质量发展。
Keyword ：
高质量发展 高质量发展 超低排放改造 超低排放改造 生态环境保护 生态环境保护 钢铁行业 钢铁行业
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| GB/T 7714 | 李新 , 杨丽阎 , 穆献中 et al. 生态环保推引钢铁行业高质量发展的路径机制研究 [J]. | 环境保护 , 2020 , 48 (Z2) : 90-95 . |
| MLA | 李新 et al. "生态环保推引钢铁行业高质量发展的路径机制研究" . | 环境保护 48 . Z2 (2020) : 90-95 . |
| APA | 李新 , 杨丽阎 , 穆献中 , 储成君 . 生态环保推引钢铁行业高质量发展的路径机制研究 . | 环境保护 , 2020 , 48 (Z2) , 90-95 . |
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Abstract ：
近年来,通过对钢铁行业落后产能淘汰、超低排放改造、环保督察巡查、标准规范制定、清洁生产改造等多项持续性举措,有力推动了行业低碳绿色转型、市场供需平衡与盈利水平提升.通过与国际对标发现,我国重点大中型钢企绿色发展绩效达到世界先进水平.但当前钢铁行业仍面临“东重西轻”“北高南低”、环保“两级分化”、产能基数不准等问题,需要持续发挥环境政策引导作用,以环保倒逼产业布局与结构优化,加大环保节能技术研发投入,推动钢铁行业高质量发展.
Keyword ：
超低排放改造 超低排放改造 高质量发展 高质量发展 钢铁行业 钢铁行业 生态环境保护 生态环境保护
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| GB/T 7714 | 李新 , 杨丽阎 , 穆献中 et al. 生态环保推引钢铁行业高质量发展的径机制研究 [J]. | 环境保护 , 2020 , 48 (3) : 90-95 . |
| MLA | 李新 et al. "生态环保推引钢铁行业高质量发展的径机制研究" . | 环境保护 48 . 3 (2020) : 90-95 . |
| APA | 李新 , 杨丽阎 , 穆献中 , 储成君 . 生态环保推引钢铁行业高质量发展的径机制研究 . | 环境保护 , 2020 , 48 (3) , 90-95 . |
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Abstract ：
京津冀地区是我国钢铁行业布局最集中的区域,也是大气污染治理的重点区域之一.分析京津冀地区钢铁行业各类治污手段中长期减排的成本-效益,对于选择最经济有效的减排路径、加快推动该地区大气环境质量达标意义重大.基于能源环境、环境分布、人群健康效益评价等模块构建多模型耦合方法,以2015年为基准年,以每5 a为时间节点,设计了京津冀地区钢铁行业规模-结构、规模-技术、规模-末端治理、综合减排4种协同减排情景,计算各情景下2015—2030年京津冀地区钢铁行业主要污染物(SO2、NOx、PM10、PM2.5、CO2)的减排成本与效益,比较获取治污减排的最优路径方案.结果 表明:①基于减排成本计算,规模-末端治理减排情景成本最低,分别为规模-结构、规模-技术减排情景投入的15.18％、23.94％;综合减排情景下治污减排潜力最大,但综合成本最高.②基于环境税效益评价方法、人群健康效益评价方法计算显示,人群健康效益评价方法计算的减排效益高于环境税效益评价方法,表明污染减排的潜在人群健康效益更高;基于两种减排效益方法,4种协同减排情景中综合减排效益分别为10.78×108、76.14×108元,高于规模-结构、规模-技术、规模-末端治理减排情景效益.③基于环境税效益评价方法,4种协同减排情景的效益-成本比表现为规模-末端治理减排情景(0.46)>规模-技术减排情景(0.24)>综合减排情景(0.15)>规模-结构减排情景(0.10);基于人群健康效益评价方法4种协同减排情景的效益-成本比依次为规模-末端治理减排情景(8.35)>综合减排情景(1.07)>规模-结构减排情景(0.57)>规模-技术减排情景(0.65),表明规模-末端治理减排情景的减排路径最优.研究显示,京津冀地区钢铁行业应基于环境质量底线目标要求,综合考虑减排潜力、减排成本与收益,以规模-末端治理为主要途径,选取协同减排的最优路径.
Keyword ：
成本-效益 成本-效益 人群健康效益 人群健康效益 钢铁行业 钢铁行业 京津冀地区 京津冀地区
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| GB/T 7714 | 李新 , 路路 , 穆献中 et al. 京津冀地区钢铁行业协同减排成本-效益分析 [J]. | 环境科学研究 , 2020 , 33 (9) : 2226-2234 . |
| MLA | 李新 et al. "京津冀地区钢铁行业协同减排成本-效益分析" . | 环境科学研究 33 . 9 (2020) : 2226-2234 . |
| APA | 李新 , 路路 , 穆献中 , 秦昌波 . 京津冀地区钢铁行业协同减排成本-效益分析 . | 环境科学研究 , 2020 , 33 (9) , 2226-2234 . |
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Abstract ：
As an effective means to ensure extended producer responsibility, deposit-refund system can effective transfer waste streams from final disposal to reuse or recycling. Compared with other collection systems, it has better treatment effect on scattered and hard-to-regulate solid waste. Beverage packaging has become a key application area in deposit-refund system because of its large quantity, dispersed consumption and high pollution intensity. In order to better promote the application of the beverage packaging deposit-refund system, the operation mode, key parameters and development trend of beverage packaging deposit-refund system are summarized through investigation and research. Firstly, this paper analyses the operation mechanism of deposit-refund system from the principle of circulation, and classifies the deposit-refund system according to the difference of material flow and deposit flow. Then the paper studies the deposit-refund system of beverage packaging in 40 countries or regions, and describes and compares three typical deposit-refund systems of beverage packaging in Germany, Sweden and South Australia. The key parameters of deposit-refund system are analyzed, including management institutions, deposit amount, unredeemed deposit, material owner, etc. The result shows that although the operation mechanism of beverage packaging deposit-refund system varies greatly in different countries, there are also some common problems in the integration with intelligent collection, promote ecological design and develop a multi-profitable circular business model. Then the development trends of deposit recovery system are prospected: (1) Increasing the application of Internet communication technology and Internet of Things technology to make the whole process controllable and verifiable. (2) Promoting the coupling application of deposit-refund system and ecological design. (3) Focusing on the development of information value and build a diversified profit model. (4) Pay attention to the integration and application of informal recycling enterprises in the implementation process. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keyword ：
Beverage packaging Beverage packaging Deposit-refund system Deposit-refund system Development trend Development trend Operation mode Operation mode Key parameter Key parameter
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| GB/T 7714 | Zhou, Guangli , Gu, Yifan , Wu, Yufeng et al. A systematic review of the deposit-refund system for beverage packaging: Operating mode, key parameter and development trend [J]. | JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION , 2020 , 251 . |
| MLA | Zhou, Guangli et al. "A systematic review of the deposit-refund system for beverage packaging: Operating mode, key parameter and development trend" . | JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 251 (2020) . |
| APA | Zhou, Guangli , Gu, Yifan , Wu, Yufeng , Gong, Yu , Mu, Xianzhong , Han, Honggui et al. A systematic review of the deposit-refund system for beverage packaging: Operating mode, key parameter and development trend . | JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION , 2020 , 251 . |
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