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Author:

Chen, Dongsheng (Chen, Dongsheng.) (Scholars:陈东升) | Xu, Tingting (Xu, Tingting.) | Li, Yue (Li, Yue.) | Zhou, Ying (Zhou, Ying.) | Lang, Jianlei (Lang, Jianlei.) (Scholars:郎建垒) | Liu, Xiangxue (Liu, Xiangxue.) | Shi, Huading (Shi, Huading.)

Indexed by:

EI Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

In this study, a hybrid approach of combining numerical prediction with statistical analysis was proposed to forecast high-PM10 (aerosol particle with aerodynamic diameter less than 10 mu m) concentration events in Beijing, China. This approach was used to forecast the daily PM10 in Beijing from January 1 to December 30, 2013. The WRF-CMAQ modeling system was also applied to simulate Beijing's PM10 in the same period. The performance of the two methods was then assessed according to the mean bias (MB), normalized mean bias (NMB), normalized mean gross error (NME), mean normalized bias (MNB), mean normalized gross error (MNE), and root mean square error (RMSE). The results demonstrate that both methods perform well during low-PM10 concentration periods (PM10 concentration < 250 mu g/m(3)), the MB, NMB, NME, MNB, MNE and RMSE for hybrid approach during low-PM10 concentration periods were 26.15, 24.88%, 41.94%, 43.23%, 56.35% and 61.67, respectively. The MB, NMB, NME, MNB, MNE and RMSE for CMAQ during low-PM10 concentration periods were -6.04, 57.47%, 41.49%, 21.52%, 55.64% and 60.11, respectively. While the MB, NMB, NME, MNB, MNE and RMSE for CMAQ during high-PM10 concentration periods (PM10 concentration >= 250 mu g/m(3)) were -162.87, -50.37%, 50.37%, -49.86%, 49.86% and 175.93, respectively. The MB, NMB, NME, MNB, MNE and RMSE for hybrid approach during high-PM10 concentration periods were -30.3, -9.37%, 23.21%, -8.21%, 24.25% and 97.37, respectively. The hybrid approach shows significant improvement in accuracy during high-PM10 concentration periods.

Keyword:

Air pollution Forecast system Particulate matter Statistical analysis Numerical simulation

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Chen, Dongsheng]Beijing Univ Technol, Key Lab Beijing Reg Air Pollut Control, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Xu, Tingting]Beijing Univ Technol, Key Lab Beijing Reg Air Pollut Control, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Zhou, Ying]Beijing Univ Technol, Key Lab Beijing Reg Air Pollut Control, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Lang, Jianlei]Beijing Univ Technol, Key Lab Beijing Reg Air Pollut Control, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Liu, Xiangxue]Beijing Univ Technol, Key Lab Beijing Reg Air Pollut Control, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Li, Yue]Minist Transport, Transport Planning & Res Inst, Beijing, Peoples R China
  • [ 7 ] [Shi, Huading]Chinese Res Inst Environm Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China

Reprint Author's Address:

  • 陈东升

    [Chen, Dongsheng]Beijing Univ Technol, Key Lab Beijing Reg Air Pollut Control, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China

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Source :

AEROSOL AND AIR QUALITY RESEARCH

ISSN: 1680-8584

Year: 2015

Issue: 4

Volume: 15

Page: 1325-1337

4 . 0 0 0

JCR@2022

ESI Discipline: ENVIRONMENT/ECOLOGY;

ESI HC Threshold:283

JCR Journal Grade:2

CAS Journal Grade:3

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 8

SCOPUS Cited Count: 10

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 9

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