Due　to　uncertainties　and　complexities　give　birth　to　the　future　of　emerging　technologies,　conventional　methods　for　technology　evaluation　are　subjected　to　many　drawbacks　and　limitations.　After　combing　the　relevant　literature　to　the　commercial　potential　of　emerging　technologies,　this　paper　proposes　technology　commercialization　success　to　assess　the　commercialization　potential　of　emerging　technologies;　then,　combined　with　the　characteristics　of　emerging　technologies,　this　paper　establishes　the　evaluation　index　system　for　commercialization　potential　of　emerging　technologies,　after　expert　scoring,　uses　structural　equation　model　to　revise　and　optimize　the　index　system;　finally,　determines　the　weight　of　each　index.　This　paper　presents　a　new　tool　for　determining　for　the　evaluation　on　the　commercialization　potential　of　emerging　technologies.