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Author:

Xu, Shuo (Xu, Shuo.) (Scholars:徐硕) | Hao, Liyuan (Hao, Liyuan.) | Yang, Guancan (Yang, Guancan.) | Lu, Kun (Lu, Kun.) | An, Xin (An, Xin.)

Indexed by:

SSCI EI Scopus

Abstract:

The identification of emerging technologies can bring valuable intelligence to enterprises and countries determining research and development (R&D) priorities. Emerging technologies are closely related to emerging topics in terms of several well-documented attributes: relatively fast growth, radical novelty and prominent impact. Our previous work on detecting and forecasting emerging topics is adapted to measure technology emergence, but the dynamic influence model (DIM) is replaced by the topical n-grams (TNG) model in this framework to nominate several emerging technologies in technical terms and to exploit the potential of topic models. Hence, technologies are viewed as term-based themes in this study. Three indicators are designed to reflect the above attributes: the fast growth indicator, the radical novelty indicator and the prominent impact indicator. The relatively fast growth indicator is calculated from the results of the TNG model and the radical novelty indicator comes from the citation influence model (CIM). As for the prominent impact indicator, the involving authors are used after name disambiguation and credit allocation. The following fields are utilized to develop the models: title, abstract, keywords-author, publication year, byline information, and cited references. We participated in the 20182019 Measuring Tech Emergence Contest with the proposed method, and 8 out of 10 submitted ones met the contest organizer's criteria of technology emergence. Criteria included the percentage of high growth terms out of total terms provided, the degree of growth of the terms, and the frequency of those high growth terms across the dataset. Then, a qualitative assessment of overall methodology was conducted by three judges. In the end, we won Second Prize in the contest. © 2020 Elsevier Inc.

Keyword:

Technological forecasting

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Xu, Shuo]Research Base of Beijing Modern Manufacturing Development, College of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Technology, No. 100 PingLeYuan, Chaoyang District, Beijing; 100124, China
  • [ 2 ] [Hao, Liyuan]Research Base of Beijing Modern Manufacturing Development, College of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Technology, No. 100 PingLeYuan, Chaoyang District, Beijing; 100124, China
  • [ 3 ] [Yang, Guancan]School of Information Resource Management, Renmin University of China, No. 59 Zhongguancun Street, Haidian District, Beijing; 100872, China
  • [ 4 ] [Lu, Kun]School of Library and Information Studies, The University of Oklahoma, 401 W. Brooks St., Norman; OK; 73072, United States
  • [ 5 ] [An, Xin]School of Economics & Management, Beijing Forestry University, No. 35 Qinghua East Rd., Haidian District, Beijing; 100083, China

Reprint Author's Address:

  • [an, xin]school of economics & management, beijing forestry university, no. 35 qinghua east rd., haidian district, beijing; 100083, china

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Source :

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

ISSN: 0040-1625

Year: 2021

Volume: 162

ESI Discipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES, GENERAL;

ESI HC Threshold:53

JCR Journal Grade:1

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count: 54

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 8

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