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Author:

Jamal, Arshad (Jamal, Arshad.) | Zahid, Muhammad (Zahid, Muhammad.) | Tauhidur Rahman, Muhammad (Tauhidur Rahman, Muhammad.) | Al-Ahmadi, Hassan M. (Al-Ahmadi, Hassan M..) | Almoshaogeh, Meshal (Almoshaogeh, Meshal.) | Farooq, Danish (Farooq, Danish.) | Ahmad, Mahmood (Ahmad, Mahmood.)

Indexed by:

SSCI Scopus

Abstract:

A better understanding of injury severity risk factors is fundamental to improving crash prediction and effective implementation of appropriate mitigation strategies. Traditional statistical models widely used in this regard have predefined correlation and intrinsic assumptions, which, if flouted, may yield biased predictions. The present study investigates the possibility of using the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model compared with few traditional machine learning algorithms (logistic regression, random forest, and decision tree) for crash injury severity analysis. The data used in this study was obtained from the traffic safety department, ministry of transport (MOT) at Riyadh, KSA, and contains 13,546 motor vehicle collisions along 15 rural highways reported between January 2017 to December 2019. Empirical results obtained using k-fold (k = 10) for various performance metrics showed that the XGBoost technique outperformed other models in terms of the collective predictive performance as well as injury severity individual class accuracies. XGBoost feature importance analysis indicated that collision type, weather status, road surface conditions, on-site damage type, lighting conditions, and vehicle type are the few sensitive variables in predicting the crash injury severity outcome. Finally, a comparative analysis of XGBoost based on different performance statistics showed that our model outperformed most previous studies.

Keyword:

Traffic crashes XGBoost crash injury severity prediction machine learning feature sensitivity analysis

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Jamal, Arshad]King Fahd Univ Petr & Minerals, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia
  • [ 2 ] [Al-Ahmadi, Hassan M.]King Fahd Univ Petr & Minerals, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia
  • [ 3 ] [Zahid, Muhammad]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Metropolitan Transportat, Beijing, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Tauhidur Rahman, Muhammad]King Fahd Univ Petr & Minerals, Dept City & Reg Planning, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia
  • [ 5 ] [Almoshaogeh, Meshal]Qassim Univ, Coll Engn, Dept Civil Engn, Buraydah, Qassim, Saudi Arabia
  • [ 6 ] [Farooq, Danish]Budapest Univ Technol & Econ, Dept Transport Technol & Econ, Budapest, Hungary
  • [ 7 ] [Farooq, Danish]Univ Engn & Technol Peshawar, Dept Civil Engn, Bannu Campus, Peshawar, Pakistan
  • [ 8 ] [Ahmad, Mahmood]Univ Engn & Technol Peshawar, Dept Civil Engn, Bannu Campus, Peshawar, Pakistan

Reprint Author's Address:

  • [Jamal, Arshad]King Fahd Univ Petr & Minerals, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia

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Related Keywords:

Source :

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INJURY CONTROL AND SAFETY PROMOTION

ISSN: 1745-7300

Year: 2021

Issue: 4

Volume: 28

Page: 408-427

ESI Discipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES, GENERAL;

ESI HC Threshold:53

JCR Journal Grade:3

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 0

SCOPUS Cited Count: 107

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 6

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