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Abstract:
Evaluating the failure probabilities with rare events remains a challenging task, especially when dealing with complex limit state functions with high-dimensional random inputs. To handle this problem, an adaptive polynomial skewed-normal transformation (A-PSNT) model is proposed in this paper for evaluating the probability distribution of the limit state function and failure probability. First, the polynomial transformation models on the basis of normal distribution are introduced, where the limitations are also pointed out. Then, the skewed-normal distribution is presented, which serves as the basis of the proposed polynomial transformation model. The PSNT with a given order can be initiated, whereby the unknown coefficients can be determined by using the probability weighted moments (PWMs)-matching technique. Further, a tail error criterion is proposed to select the most appropriate order for the PSNT model, which makes the proposed method an adaptive one. To handle the low-to high-dimensional random inputs, two low-discrepancy sampling methods are employed to generate samples for unbiasedly estimating the PWMs of the limit state function. Once the probability distribution of the limit state function is reconstructed by the proposed A-PSNT model, the failure probability, especially for the rare one, can be determined accordingly. The proposed method is validated through numerical examples involving both static and dynamic, low-to high-dimensional problems, where some classical reliability analysis methods are also adopted for comparisons. The results show that the proposed A-PSNT model not only can effectively reconstruct the probability distribution, but also is able to accurately predict the failure probability with rare events.
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Source :
MECHANICAL SYSTEMS AND SIGNAL PROCESSING
ISSN: 0888-3270
Year: 2022
Volume: 169
8 . 4
JCR@2022
8 . 4 0 0
JCR@2022
ESI Discipline: ENGINEERING;
ESI HC Threshold:49
JCR Journal Grade:1
CAS Journal Grade:1
Cited Count:
WoS CC Cited Count: 8
SCOPUS Cited Count: 9
ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All
WanFang Cited Count:
Chinese Cited Count:
30 Days PV: 6
Affiliated Colleges: