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Abstract:
Carbon trading is a vital market mechanism to achieve carbon emission reduction. The accurate prediction of the carbon price is conducive to the effective management and decision-making of the carbon trading market. However, existing research on carbon price forecasting has ignored the impacts of multiple factors on the carbon price, especially climate change. This study proposes a text-based framework for carbon price prediction that considers the impact of climate change. Textual online news is innovatively employed to construct a climate-related variable. The information is combined with other variables affecting the carbon price to forecast the carbon price, using a long short-term memory network and random forest model. The results demonstrate that the prediction accuracy of the carbon price in the Hubei and Guangdong carbon markets is enhanced by adding the textual variable that measures climate change. (c) 2022 Economic Society of Australia, Queensland. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Source :
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND POLICY
ISSN: 0313-5926
Year: 2022
Volume: 74
Page: 382-401
ESI Discipline: ECONOMICS & BUSINESS;
ESI HC Threshold:44
Cited Count:
WoS CC Cited Count: 0
SCOPUS Cited Count: 49
ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All
WanFang Cited Count:
Chinese Cited Count:
30 Days PV: 5
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