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Author:

Zhao, Lin Lin (Zhao, Lin Lin.) | Wang, Bill (Wang, Bill.) | Mbachu, Jasper (Mbachu, Jasper.) | Egbelakin, Temitope (Egbelakin, Temitope.)

Indexed by:

EI Scopus

Abstract:

Trend in the producer price is of much value to the central bank authorities in identifying the cost-push inflation that can improve their understanding of future directions of inflation in the aggregate economy and informulating sound policies and macroeconomic plans. Forecasting of the producer price movement is complex; the popular use of conventional methods is fraught with inaccuracies which often produces misleading results. This study explored the reliability and accuracy of the use of artificial neural networks (ANNs) for modelling and predicting producer price index (PPI) trend in New Zealand. The study also compared ANNs results with those produced by the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) as an alternative. Results showed that the ANNs model outperformed the ARIMA model as a more reliable and accurate tool for time series data prediction. The method developed could guide economists and macroeconomic policymakers in making more accurate forecasts. Copyright © 2020 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Keyword:

Commerce Neural networks Forecasting Autoregressive moving average model

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Zhao, Lin Lin]College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
  • [ 2 ] [Wang, Bill]College of Science and Advanced Technology, Auckland Campus, Oteha Rohe, Albany Highway, Albany, Auckland; 0632, New Zealand
  • [ 3 ] [Mbachu, Jasper]Faculty of Society and Design, 14 University Drive, Robina; QLD; 4226, Australia
  • [ 4 ] [Egbelakin, Temitope]College of Science and Advanced Technology, Auckland Campus, Oteha Rohe, Albany Highway, Albany, Auckland; 0632, New Zealand

Reprint Author's Address:

  • [zhao, lin lin]college of architecture and civil engineering, beijing university of technology, beijing, china

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Source :

International Journal of Internet Manufacturing and Services

ISSN: 1751-6048

Year: 2020

Issue: 3

Volume: 7

Page: 237-251

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count: 4

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 2

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