Evaluating　the　water　resources　carrying　capacity　(WRCC)　is　the　prerequisite　and　foundation　for　the　planning　and　management　of　water　resources.　In　this　paper,　according　to　risk　theory,　a　framework　for　the　risk　assessment　of　WRCC　was　proposed　based　on　the　fragility　of　damage-affected　bodies　and　the　damage　posed　by　disaster-inducing　factors.　Then,　based　on　water　quantity,　water　quality,　water　area,　and　water　flow,　a　fragility　index　system　was　constructed　from　the　water　resources,　economy,　and　society　category.　Additionally,　the　damage　was　analyzed　in　terms　of　climate　change,　urbanization,　and　industrialization.　Finally,　a　model　for　the　risk　assessment　of　the　WRCC　was　established　by　combining　the　fragility　of　the　water　resources　carrying　system　with　the　compound　damage　posed　by　climate　change,　urbanization,　and　industrialization.　The　developed　model　was　then　applied　to　assess　the　risk　of　the　WRCC　in　North　China　in　2017.　The　results　indicate　that　the　fragility　of　the　WRCC　was　the　highest　in　the　Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei　region,　and　the　compound　damage　showed　an　increasing　trend　from　the　southeast　to　the　northwest　in　North　China.　Meanwhile,　the　risk　of　the　WRCC　decreased　from　the　southeast　to　the　northwest,　the　highest　risk　was　observed　in　Hebei　Province,　and　the　lowest　risk　was　observed　in　Inner　Mongolia.　This　research　provides　an　important　technical　guideline　for　the　sustainable　utilization　of　water　resources　and　the　coordinated　development　of　the　economy　and　society.