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Author:

Song, John (Song, John.) | Song, Huixu (Song, Huixu.)

Indexed by:

Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

Likelihood ratio (LR) plays an important role in estimating the weight of evidence in firearm evidence identifications. LR is computed from a statistical model including the distribution of the known-matching (KM or within) and known-nonmatching (KNM or between) comparison scores. Current LR procedures rely on KM/KNM scores from existing reference firearm toolmark data sets or alternatively from generating a set of test fires using multiple firearms. Both procedures may contain theoretical or practical issues which may hinder the LR procedures from reporting an unbiased LR estimation in casework. In this paper, a reference data set was established from a set of firearms, each test-fired two cartridge cases, resulting in a basic data set and a control data set. The congruent matching cells (CMC) method was used to generate CMC scores that are used to fit in the KM/KNM statistical distributions for LR estimation. In the initial test, 130 firearms from eight manufacturers were used for generating a reference data set consisting of 260 cartridge cases representing 130 KM and 8378 KNM pairwise breech face images. Test results showed that the KM and KNM distribution intersect at CMC = 2, which is equivalent to LR = 1 (equally to support both the prosecutor and the defense propositions). When the CMC threshold is increased to 6 or more, the LR values are higher than a million, which can provide extremely strong support to the conclusion of the same firearm (or the prosecutor's proposition) in the casework of firearm evidence identification.

Keyword:

likelihood ratio firearm toolmark congruent matching cells firearm evidence identification

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Song, John]NIST, Phys Measurement Lab, Sensor Sci Div, Gaithersburg, MD USA
  • [ 2 ] [Song, Huixu]NIST, Phys Measurement Lab, Sensor Sci Div, Gaithersburg, MD USA
  • [ 3 ] [Song, Huixu]Beijing Univ Technol BJUT, Beijing Engn Res Ctr Precis Measurement Technol &, Beijing, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Song, Huixu]NIST, Sensor Sci Div, Phys Measurement Lab, Gaithersburg, MD 20899 USA

Reprint Author's Address:

  • [Song, Huixu]NIST, Sensor Sci Div, Phys Measurement Lab, Gaithersburg, MD 20899 USA;;

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Source :

JOURNAL OF FORENSIC SCIENCES

ISSN: 0022-1198

Year: 2022

Issue: 2

Volume: 68

Page: 399-406

1 . 6

JCR@2022

1 . 6 0 0

JCR@2022

ESI Discipline: CLINICAL MEDICINE;

ESI HC Threshold:38

JCR Journal Grade:3

CAS Journal Grade:4

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 1

SCOPUS Cited Count: 1

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 6

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