Commercial　vehicles　are　important　within　the　context　of　global　warming,　since　they　exhibit　greenhouse　gas　(GHG)　emissions　that　are　disproportionate　to　their　quantity.　The　aim　of　this　study　was　to　create　a　bottom-up　GHG　emissions　assessment　model　which　considers　GHG　emissions　of　newly　produced　commercial　vehicles　and　those　in　current　use.　Through　this　study,　the　number　of　future　commercial　vehicles　were　predicted,　thereby　facilitating　a　simulation　of　future　GHG　emissions.　Our　results　show　that　the　total　GHG　emissions　of　commercial　vehicles　in　2019　was　580　million　t　CO2-eq..　Among　them,　the　GHG　emissions　stemming　from　the　production　of　new　commercial　vehicles　accounted　for　∼0.3%　of　the　emissions,　whereas　the　use　stage　accounted　for　more　than　99.0%.　Moreover,　the　future　ownership　of　commercial　vehicles　depends　on　GDP　and　the　demand　of　freight　and　passenger　transport.　The　ownership　of　commercial　vehicles　was　predicted　about　36.61　million　in　2025,　45.44　million　in　2030　and　55.85　million　in　2035.　The　carbon　peak　of　commercial　vehicles　varies　across　different　scenarios,　peaking　around　2031–2034,　at　680–780　million　t　CO2-eq..　This　study　systematically　simulated　the　carbon　peak　of　commercial　vehicles,　contributing　toward　a　deeper　understanding　of　commercial　vehicles　within　the　context　of　GHG　emissions.　These　results　can　be　applied　toward　creating　quantitatively-driven　pathways　for　carbon　peak　or　neutrality　targets　in　the　commercial　vehicle　sector.　©　2023　Elsevier　Ltd