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Author:

Granha, M.F.B. (Granha, M.F.B..) | Vilela, A.L.M. (Vilela, A.L.M..) | Wang, C. (Wang, C..) | Nelson, K.P. (Nelson, K.P..) | Stanley, H.E. (Stanley, H.E..)

Indexed by:

Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

We investigate financial market dynamics by introducing a heterogeneous agent-based opinion formation model. In this work, we organize individuals in a financial market according to their trading strategy, namely, whether they are noise traders or fundamentalists. The opinion of a local majority compels the market exchanging behavior of noise traders, whereas the global behavior of the market influences the decisions of fundamentalist agents. We introduce a noise parameter, q, to represent the level of anxiety and perceived uncertainty regarding market behavior, enabling the possibility of adrift financial action. We place individuals as nodes in an Erdös-Rényi random graph, where the links represent their social interactions. At any given time, individuals assume one of two possible opinion states ±1 regarding buying or selling an asset. The model exhibits fundamental qualitative and quantitative real-world market features such as the distribution of logarithmic returns with fat tails, clustered volatility, and the long-term correlation of returns. We use Student's t distributions to fit the histograms of logarithmic returns, showing a gradual shift from a leptokurtic to a mesokurtic regime depending on the fraction of fundamentalist agents. Furthermore, we compare our results with those concerning the distribution of the logarithmic returns of several real-world financial indices. Copyright © 2022 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND).

Keyword:

phase transitions complex networks econophysics Monte Carlo simulation sociophysics

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Granha M.F.B.]Física de Materiais, Escola Politécnica de Pernambuco, Universidade de Pernambuco, PE, Recife, 50720-001, Brazil
  • [ 2 ] [Vilela A.L.M.]Física de Materiais, Escola Politécnica de Pernambuco, Universidade de Pernambuco, PE, Recife, 50720-001, Brazil
  • [ 3 ] [Vilela A.L.M.]Center for Polymer Studies, Department of Physics, Boston University, Boston, 02215, MA, United States
  • [ 4 ] [Wang C.]College of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, 100124, China
  • [ 5 ] [Nelson K.P.]Photrek LLC, Watertown, 02472, MA, United States
  • [ 6 ] [Stanley H.E.]Center for Polymer Studies, Department of Physics, Boston University, Boston, 02215, MA, United States

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Source :

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

ISSN: 0027-8424

Year: 2022

Issue: 49

Volume: 119

1 1 . 1

JCR@2022

1 1 . 1 0 0

JCR@2022

ESI Discipline: Multidisciplinary;

ESI HC Threshold:91

JCR Journal Grade:1

CAS Journal Grade:1

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 0

SCOPUS Cited Count: 13

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 3

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