This　paper　focuses　on　the　prediction　of　ground　surface　settlement　induced　by　shield　tunnelling　in　sandy　cobble　stratum.　Based　on　the　stochastic　medium　theory,　an　analytical　solution　to　predict　the　surface　settlement　is　developed　considering　the　difference　between　soil　and　tunnel　volume　loss.　Then,　the　effects　of　tunnel　geometries,　influence　angle　and　volume　loss　on　the　characteristics　of　surface　settlement　are　discussed.　Through　back　analysis,　a　total　of　103　groups　of　field　monitoring　data　of　surface　settlement　induced　by　shield　tunnelling　in　sandy　cobble　stratum　are　examined　to　investigate　the　statistical　characteristics　of　the　maximum　settlement,　settlement　trough　width　and　volume　loss.　An　empirical　prediction　is　presented　based　on　the　results　of　back　analysis.　Finally,　the　analytical　solution　and　empirical　expression　are　validated　by　the　comparisons　with　the　results　of　model　tests　and　field　monitoring.　Results　show　that　the　soil　at　ground　surface　has　an　overall　dilative　response　for　most　of　the　shield　tunnelling　in　sandy　cobble　stratum.　In　addition,　the　developed　analytical　solution　is　applicable　and　reasonable　for　surface　settlement　prediction.　Meanwhile,　the　proposed　empirical　formula　also　shows　good　performance　in　some　cases,　providing　an　approach　or　a　reference　for　engineering　designers　to　preliminarily　evaluate　the　surface　settlement.　©　2023　Tongji　University