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Author:

Li, Quan-Lin (Li, Quan-Lin.) | Wang, Chengliang (Wang, Chengliang.) | Yang, Feifei (Yang, Feifei.) | Zhang, Chi (Zhang, Chi.)

Indexed by:

EI Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

After over three years of COVID-19, it has become clear that infectious diseases are difficult to eradicate, and humans remain vulnerable under their influence in a long period. The presence of presymptomatic and asymptomatic patients is a significant obstacle to preventing and eliminating infectious diseases. However, the long-term transmission of infectious diseases involving asymptomatic patients still remains unclear. To address this issue, this paper develops a novel Markov process for infectious diseases with asymptomatic patients by means of a continuous-time leveldependent quasi-birth-and-death (QBD) process. The model accurately captures the transmission of infectious diseases by specifying several key parameters (or factors). To analyze the role of asymptomatic and symptomatic patients in the infectious disease transmission process, a simple sufficient condition for the stability of the Markov process of infectious diseases is derived using the mean drift technique. Then, the stationary probability vector of the QBD process is obtained by using RG-factorizations. A method of using the stationary probability vector is provided to obtain important performance measures of the model. Finally, some numerical experiments are presented to demonstrate the model's feasibility through analyzing COVID-19 as an example. The impact of key parameters on the system performance evaluation and the infectious disease transmission process are analyzed. The methodology and results of this paper can provide theoretical and technical support for the scientific control of the long-term transmission of infectious diseases, and we believe that they can serve as a foundation for developing more general models of infectious disease transmission.

Keyword:

performance evaluation coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) asymptomatic patients quasi-birth-and-death process (QBD) Markov process

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Li, Quan-Lin]Beijing Univ Technol, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Wang, Chengliang]Beijing Univ Technol, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Yang, Feifei]Beijing Univ Technol, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Zhang, Chi]Beijing Univ Technol, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China

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Source :

MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES AND ENGINEERING

ISSN: 1547-1063

Year: 2023

Issue: 10

Volume: 20

Page: 17822-17848

2 . 6 0 0

JCR@2022

ESI Discipline: MATHEMATICS;

ESI HC Threshold:9

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 0

SCOPUS Cited Count:

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 6

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