The　steel-manufacturing　intensive　cities　(steel　cities)　in　China　are　facing　a　difficult　position　of　economic　transformation　and　air　pollutant　control.　In　this　case,　taking　Tangshan　as　the　research　object,　this　study　intends　to　simulate　the　developing　trends　of　steel　cities　and　verify　the　effect　of　economic　transformation　by　2020　to　explore　the　development　rule　of　steel　cities.　The　theories　and　methods　of　system　dynamics,　input-output　theory　and　econometrics　were　adopted　to　establish　a　comprehensive　evaluation　model　based　on　the　detailed　analysis　of　economy-energy-environment　(3Es)　coupling　mechanism　in　Tangshan.　The　multi-objective　dynamic　simulation　from　2016　to　2020　was　carried　out　by　the　comprehensive　evaluation　model.　The　simulation　results　show　the　gross　production　of　Tangshan　would　get　slow　in　the　period　of　prediction.　Compared　with　the　data　in　2016,　the　gross　production　increases　only　11%　in　2020.　It　even　shows　a　decline　of　1.4%　in　2019,　which　conforms　to　the　reality.　The　steel　industry　decreased　34.6%　during　this　period,　showing　that　its　development　was　heavily　impacted　with　the　target　of　both　economic　transformation　and　air　quality　improvement.　The　simulation　results　are　consistent　with　the　real　data.　The　accuracy　of　the　comprehensive　evaluation　model　and　reliability　of　the　prediction　can　be　confirmed.　It　is　difficult　for　Tangshan　to　achieve　the　dual　goals　of　economic　development　and　air　pollution　reduction　by　2020　if　it　maintains　the　current　level　of　economic　structure　and　pollution　control　level.　Adjustment　of　industrial　structure　would　be　the　key　way　for　a　more　reasonable　development.　©　2020,　The　Author(s),　under　exclusive　license　to　Springer　Nature　Singapore　Pte　Ltd.