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Author:

Zahid, Muhammad (Zahid, Muhammad.) | Chen, Yangzhou (Chen, Yangzhou.) (Scholars:陈阳舟) | Jamal, Arshad (Jamal, Arshad.) | Mamadou, Coulibaly Zie (Mamadou, Coulibaly Zie.)

Indexed by:

SSCI Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

Short-term traffic speed prediction is vital for proactive traffic control, and is one of the integral components of an intelligent transportation system (ITS). Accurate prediction of short-term travel speed has numerous applications for traffic monitoring, route planning, as well as helping to relieve traffic congestion. Previous studies have attempted to approach this problem using statistical and conventional artificial intelligence (AI) methods without accounting for influence of data collection time-horizons. However, statistical methods have received widespread criticism concerning prediction accuracy performance, while traditional AI approaches have too shallow architecture to capture non-linear stochastics variations in traffic flow. Hence, this study aims to explore prediction of short-term traffic speed at multiple time-ahead intervals using data collected from loop detectors. A fast forest quantile regression (FFQR) via hyperparameters optimization was introduced for predicting short-term traffic speed prediction. FFQR is an ensemble machine learning model that combines several regression trees to improve speed prediction accuracy. The accuracy of short-term traffic speed prediction was compared using the FFQR model at different data collection time-horizons. Prediction results demonstrated the adequacy and robustness of the proposed approach under different scenarios. It was concluded that prediction performance of FFQR was significantly enhanced and robust, particularly at time intervals larger than 5 min. The findings also revealed that speed prediction error (in terms of quantiles loss) ranged between 0.58 and 1.18.

Keyword:

ITS travel speed prediction traffic simulation and modeling Beijing fast forest quantile regression

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Zahid, Muhammad]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Metropolitan Transportat, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Chen, Yangzhou]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Artificial Intelligence & Automat, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Jamal, Arshad]KFUPM, Dept Civil Engn, Dhahran 31261, Saudi Arabia
  • [ 4 ] [Mamadou, Coulibaly Zie]IA Sch, Esi Business Sch, Grp Gema, Dept Artificial Intelligence & Management, 61 Bis Rue Peupliers, F-92100 Paris, France

Reprint Author's Address:

  • 陈阳舟

    [Chen, Yangzhou]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Artificial Intelligence & Automat, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China

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Source :

SUSTAINABILITY

Year: 2020

Issue: 2

Volume: 12

3 . 9 0 0

JCR@2022

ESI Discipline: ENVIRONMENT/ECOLOGY;

ESI HC Threshold:138

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 23

SCOPUS Cited Count: 33

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 10

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