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Abstract:
In this study, a novel multi-stage fuzzy stochastic programming (MSFSP) model was developed for regional energy system structure optimization and planning with energy-water nexus under multiple uncertainties. By cooperating the multistage stochastic programming and fuzzy theory, the developed model can deal with energy system planning problems under a mixture of probabilistic and possibilistic uncertainties. Fuzzy random scenarios are designed to express the uncertain future energy demand levels and vague decision maker's risk attitude. A MSFSP -based energy-water nexus system management model was applied to a practical energy system planning problem in an energy-intensive and water-stressed area, Tianjin, China. Results of optimal capacity expansion, power generation, and imported electricity strategies were obtained; meanwhile the water resource availability effects and decision makers' risk attitude were analyzed. It was found that water resource availability would be a significant factor in promoting local power structure and electricity generation in the future. More serious water resource deficiency would lead to reduce local coal-fired power capacity investment, while stimulate renewable energy development and increase imported electricity requirement. All above can facilitate decision supports for regional energy system planning from a comprehensive energy-water nexus perspective with more sustainable and risk-aversion manners. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Reprint Author's Address:
Source :
ENERGY
ISSN: 0360-5442
Year: 2020
Volume: 190
9 . 0 0 0
JCR@2022
ESI Discipline: ENGINEERING;
ESI HC Threshold:115
Cited Count:
WoS CC Cited Count: 33
SCOPUS Cited Count: 31
ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All
WanFang Cited Count:
Chinese Cited Count:
30 Days PV: 11
Affiliated Colleges: