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Author:

Liu, Xudong (Liu, Xudong.) | Wang, Wei (Wang, Wei.) | Hou, Bohan (Hou, Bohan.) | Feng, Ning (Feng, Ning.)

Indexed by:

CPCI-S EI

Abstract:

Anomalies in vaccine data are often encountered when projecting the active cases in Africa. This issue could severely impact the accuracy of expected active case, thereby affecting future government intervention protection policies etc. In this paper, a new method to accurately predict active cases considering anomalies is presented. Firstly, an autoencoder is used to detect the vaccine anomalies, Then, in order to impute missing values in the complete African vaccination data a small-scale k nearest neighbor (ssKNN) with upper and lower bounds is developed. As an extension of K-nearest neighbor interpolation, ssKNN could guarantee the interpolation quality and efficiency by limiting the filling range. To be specific, the upper and lower bounds of missing values are found based on the proposed method, and then the missing values could be filled according to the upper and lower bounds as well as the Euclidean distance. Then, the transmission rate β is estimated using long short-term memory (LSTM), which is an essential parameter in a classical mechanistic model for projecting the number of future active cases. Finally, the effectiveness of proposed method is verified on dataset of 15 worst-affected countries by COVID-19 epidemic in Africa demonstrating its efficacy in prediction of active cases of COVID-19 with vaccine anomalies. © 2023 IEEE.

Keyword:

Motion compensation Forecasting Anomaly detection Vaccines Nearest neighbor search COVID-19 Long short-term memory

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Liu, Xudong]Beijing University of Technology, Faculty of Information Technology, Beijing, China
  • [ 2 ] [Wang, Wei]Beijing University of Technology, Faculty of Information Technology, Beijing, China
  • [ 3 ] [Hou, Bohan]Beijing University of Technology, Faculty of Information Technology, Beijing, China
  • [ 4 ] [Feng, Ning]Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Center for Global Public Health, Beijing, China

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Year: 2023

Page: 2031-2036

Language: English

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 0

SCOPUS Cited Count: 1

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 4

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