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Author:

Zhang, Wen (Zhang, Wen.) (Scholars:张文) | Yan, Shaoshan (Yan, Shaoshan.) | Li, Jian (Li, Jian.) | Peng, Rui (Peng, Rui.) | Tian, Xin (Tian, Xin.)

Indexed by:

Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

It is crucial to predict the credit risk of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) accurately for the success of supply chain finance (SCF). However, most of the existing research ignore the fact that the data distribution is usually imbalanced, that is, the proportion of default SMEs is much smaller than that of non-default SMEs. To fill this research gap, we propose a novel approach called DRL-Risk to deal with the imbalanced credit risk prediction (ICRP) of SMEs in SCF with deep reinforcement learning (DRL). Specifically, we formulate the ICRP problem as a Markov decision process and suggest an instance-based reward function to incorporate financial loss into the reward function with consideration of the actual loss caused by misclassification in the ICRP of SMEs. Then, we recommend a deep dueling neural network for decision policy to predict the credit risk of SMEs. With deep reinforcement learning, the DRL-Risk approach can prioritize the learning on the SMEs that would lead to great financial losses. Experimental results demonstrate that the DRL-Risk approach can significantly improve the performance of credit risk prediction of SMEs in SCF compared with the baseline methods in recall, G-mean, and financial loss. We have also identified management implications for the decision-makers participating in SCF.

Keyword:

Financial loss DRL-risk Imbalanced credit risk prediction Instance-based reward Deep reinforcement learning

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Zhang, Wen]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Econ & Management, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Yan, Shaoshan]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Econ & Management, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Li, Jian]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Econ & Management, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Peng, Rui]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Econ & Management, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Zhang, Wen]Binzhou Inst Technol, Weiqiao UCAS Sci & Technol Pk, Binzhou 256606, Shandong, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Tian, Xin]Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China

Reprint Author's Address:

  • 张文

    [Zhang, Wen]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Econ & Management, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China;;[Zhang, Wen]Binzhou Inst Technol, Weiqiao UCAS Sci & Technol Pk, Binzhou 256606, Shandong, Peoples R China

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Source :

ANNALS OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH

ISSN: 0254-5330

Year: 2024

4 . 8 0 0

JCR@2022

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 1

SCOPUS Cited Count: 2

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 11

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