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Author:

Li, Xiaoqun (Li, Xiaoqun.) | Zhang, Lianyun (Zhang, Lianyun.) | Tan, Changlei (Tan, Changlei.) | Wu, Yan (Wu, Yan.) | Zhang, Ziheng (Zhang, Ziheng.) | Ding, Juan (Ding, Juan.) | Li, Yong (Li, Yong.)

Indexed by:

Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

Background To control resurging infectious diseases like mumps, it is necessary to resort to effective control and preventive measures. These measures include increasing vaccine coverage, providing the community with advice on how to reduce exposure, and closing schools. To justify such intervention, it is important to understand how well each of these measures helps to limit transmission.Methods In this paper, we propose a simple SEILR (susceptible-exposed-symptomatically infectious-asymptomatically infectious-recovered) model by using a novel transmission rate function to incorporate temperature, humidity, and closing school factors. This new transmission rate function allows us to verify the impact of each factor either separately or combined. Using reported mumps cases from 2004 to 2018 in the mainland of China, we perform data fitting and parameter estimation to evaluate the basic reproduction number R 0 \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\mathfrak R}_0$$\end{document} . As a wide range of one-dose measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine programs in China started only in 2008, we use different vaccination proportions for the first Stage I period (from 2004 to 2008) and the second Stage II period (from 2009 to 2018). This allows us to verify the importance of higher vaccine coverage with a possible second dose of MMR vaccine.Results We find that the basic reproduction number R 0 \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\mathfrak R}_0$$\end{document} is generally between 1 and 3. We then use the Akaike Information Criteria to assess the extent to which each of the three factors contributed to the spread of mumps. The findings suggest that the impact of all three factors is substantial, with temperature having the most significant impact, followed by school opening and closing, and finally humidity.Conclusion We conclude that the strategy of increasing vaccine coverage, changing micro-climate (temperature and humidity), and closing schools can greatly reduce mumps transmission.

Keyword:

Temperature Mumps School opening and closing Humidity Data fitting Basic reproduction number

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Li, Xiaoqun]Yangtze Univ, Sch Informat & Math, Nanhuan Rd, Jingzhou 434023, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Zhang, Lianyun]Yangtze Univ, Sch Informat & Math, Nanhuan Rd, Jingzhou 434023, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Li, Yong]Yangtze Univ, Sch Informat & Math, Nanhuan Rd, Jingzhou 434023, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Tan, Changlei]Hunan Appl Technol Univ, Informat Engn Coll, Shanjuan Rd, Changde 415100, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Wu, Yan]Beijing Univ Technol, Dept Operat Res & Informat Engn, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Zhang, Ziheng]Univ Manchester, Sch Environm Educ & Dev SEED, Oxford Rd, Manchester M13 9PL, England
  • [ 7 ] [Ding, Juan]Yangtze Univ, Jingzhou Hosp, Chuyuan Ave, Jingzhou 434023, Peoples R China

Reprint Author's Address:

  • [Li, Yong]Yangtze Univ, Sch Informat & Math, Nanhuan Rd, Jingzhou 434023, Peoples R China;;[Ding, Juan]Yangtze Univ, Jingzhou Hosp, Chuyuan Ave, Jingzhou 434023, Peoples R China;;

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Source :

BMC PUBLIC HEALTH

Year: 2024

Issue: 1

Volume: 24

4 . 5 0 0

JCR@2022

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count:

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 5

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