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Abstract:
Derived from an effective strategy - direct and multiple-input multiple-output strategy, a modular neural network based on a bi-level particle swarm optimization algorithm (BLPSO-MNN) is proposed in the present study to improve the accuracy for multi-step time series prediction. While a binary particle swarm optimization algorithm is designed for the external layer to optimize the task division of prediction horizons, a multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm is designed for the internal layer to trade off between the prediction accuracy and structural complexity for each subnetwork in modular neural network. Besides, a set of fuzzy If-Then rules is proposed to determine the historical information to be input to subnetworks. Thus, the structure of BLPSO-MNN, including the number of modules as well as the subnetwork structure, is self-determined accordingly. Numerous experiments are conducted for 18-step-ahead time series prediction to evaluate the performance of BLPSO-MNN. Experimental results show that, although the prediction accuracy decreases when the prediction horizon is large, the overall performance of BLPSO-MNN is superior over all comparative models with greater improvement for larger horizons, indicating it is suitable for a long-term prediction. Besides, the set of fuzzy rules balances the prediction accuracy against the structural complexity caused by the subnetwork inputs.
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Source :
APPLIED INTELLIGENCE
ISSN: 0924-669X
Year: 2024
Issue: 17-18
Volume: 54
Page: 8612-8633
5 . 3 0 0
JCR@2022
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SCOPUS Cited Count:
ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All
WanFang Cited Count:
Chinese Cited Count:
30 Days PV: 8
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