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Author:

Kang, W. (Kang, W..) | Yuan, X. (Yuan, X..) | Zhang, X. (Zhang, X..) | Chen, Y. (Chen, Y..) | Li, J. (Li, J..)

Indexed by:

EI Scopus

Abstract:

The risk prediction of financial markets is of paramount importance, with investor sentiment playing a critical role. However, current research appears to be lacking in-depth exploration of this particular aspect within the Bitcoin market. This study aims to explore the impact of market participants' sentiment on risk prediction in the bitcoin market. We first applied ChatGPT to analyze the sentiment of crawled Bitcoin-related news headlines. Meanwhile, Monte Carlo simulation was employed to calculate value at risk (VaR). And we selected five conventional factors, including Bitcoin price, transaction volume, market share, hash rate, and average difficulty of mining. Finally, K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) regression model was used to construct the model for predicting the risk of bitcoin market. We made a comparison between the accuracy outcomes when considering and not considering sentiment as factors. The results show that market participant's sentiment is significantly associated with market risk, and the inclusion of sentiment can significantly improve the accuracy of the risk prediction model. © 2024 The Authors.

Keyword:

ChatGPT Risk prediction Bitcoin market Investor sentiment Text mining

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Kang W.]School of Mathematics Statistics and Mechanics, Beijing University Of Technology, Beijing, 100124, China
  • [ 2 ] [Yuan X.]School of Mathematics Statistics and Mechanics, Beijing University Of Technology, Beijing, 100124, China
  • [ 3 ] [Zhang X.]School of Economics and Management, Beijing University Of Technology, Beijing, 100124, China
  • [ 4 ] [Chen Y.]School of Economics and Management, Beijing University Of Technology, Beijing, 100124, China
  • [ 5 ] [Li J.]School of Economics and Management, Beijing University Of Technology, Beijing, 100124, China

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Source :

ISSN: 1877-0509

Year: 2024

Volume: 242

Page: 211-218

Language: English

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count: 1

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 9

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