In　line　with　China＇s　carbon　dioxide　peaking　and　carbon　neutrality　goals,　the　widespread　adoption　of　renewable　energy　has　become　a　key　global　and　national　trend.　Tradable　Green　Certificates　(TGC),　used　as　a　policy　tool　to　implement　the　Renewable　Portfolio　Standards　(RPS)　system,　stimulate　the　supply　and　demand　for　renewable　energy.　China＇s　current　TGC　trading　model　comprises　Electricity　Certificate　Combination　(ECC)　and　Electricity　Certificate　Separation　(ECS).　These　models　lead　to　varying　low-carbon　transition　pathways　in　the　regional　power　sector.　This　study　investigates　the　development　trends　of　low-carbon　power　under　different　TGC　models,　aiming　to　identify　the　optimal　transition　path.　By　formulating　policy　parameters　from　a　global　optimization　perspective,　this　study　considers　factors　such　as　power　balance,　natural　resource　allocation,　technological　constraints,　and　carbon　reduction　policies.　Using　a　bottom-up　optimization　model　for　energy　expansion,　the　study　analyzes　the　impacts　of　different　market　models　and　carbon　emission　reduction　pressures　on　China＇s　low-carbon　power　transition　from　2023　to　2050.　The　recommendation　is　first　to　use　the　ECC　model　to　promote　renewable　energy　development　by　2030,　then　transition　to　the　ECS　model　to　optimize　TGC　benefits,　achieving　a　balanced　approach　to　carbon　reduction,　economic　costs,　and　social　costs　for　the　sustainable　development　of　electricity.　©　2024　Elsevier　Ltd