Low-carbon　economy　is　the　inevitable　path　for　the　development　of　Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.　The　SD　model　of　High-quality　development　in　the　Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei　region　was　constructed　based　on　the　＂dual　carbon＂　goal,　including　capital　input　and　environmental　pollution　index　as　influencing　factors.　Through　simulation　and　prediction,　the　following　results　are　obtained:　(1)　Through　the　production　function　of　Cobb　Douglas,　Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei　region　is　still　in　the　stage　of　highly　concentrated　capital　to　promote　economic　development.　(2)　It　is　proved　that　under　the　baseline　scenario,　the　overall　carbon　neutrality　and　carbon　peaking　targets　of　Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei　are　difficult　to　achieve.　However,　in　the　context　of　high-quality　development,　the　Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei　region　can　successfully　achieve　the　target　of　carbon　peak　by　2035.　(3)　Under　the　high-quality　development　scenario,　the　carbon　emissions　will　decrease　after　the　carbon　peak,　and　the　growth　of　economic　aggregate　and　the　development　of　total　carbon　emissions　will　be　decoupled.　Through　the　carbon　emission　simulation　of　the　Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei　region,　it　can　be　found　that　high-quality　development　is　the　only　way　for　the　future　coordinated　development　of　the　Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei　region,　which　can　provide　certain　enlightenment　for　the　development　direction　of　the　Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei　region.