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Author:

Shu, Mingyu (Shu, Mingyu.) | Liu, Baoliu (Liu, Baoliu.) | Wang, Jieli (Wang, Jieli.) | Huang, Yujie (Huang, Yujie.)

Indexed by:

SSCI Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

This article categorizes climate risk into transition risk and physical risk. We developed the climate transition risk index and climate physical risk index through manual collection of textual data, and employed high-frequency data and the TVP-VAR-DY model to assess risk spillover in the Chinese stock market. Subsequently, the causal forest method was applied to analyze the causal relationships between these risks and their impact on risk spillovers across various Chinese stock markets. The research findings indicate that both transition risk and physical risk significantly influence stock market risk spillover, demonstrating a suppressive effect. Additionally, this study explored the testing of mechanisms related to public concern about climate, geopolitical risks, the risk aversion index, epidemic uncertainty, and China's trade policy uncertainty. It also examines the impact of domestic and international policy environments and the dynamics of upward and downward risk spillovers, revealing significant heterogeneity, notably widespread negative risk spillover effects. Finally, we measured risk spillovers in stock markets of varying sizes using TVP-VAR-BK and analyzed the relationship between climate risk and stock market risk spillovers with the causal forest algorithm. We found that climate risk significantly suppresses risk spillovers in stock markets of varying sizes.

Keyword:

Climate shock High frequency data Stock market Risk spillover Causal forest

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Shu, Mingyu]Hefei Univ Econ, Sch Finance, Hefei 230000, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Liu, Baoliu]Beijing Univ Technol, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Huang, Yujie]Beijing Univ Technol, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Liu, Baoliu]Beijing Univ Technol, Inst Ecocivilizat Studies, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Huang, Yujie]Beijing Univ Technol, Inst Ecocivilizat Studies, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Wang, Jieli]Anhui Univ, Sch Econ, Hefei 230601, Peoples R China

Reprint Author's Address:

  • [Liu, Baoliu]Beijing Univ Technol, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China;;[Liu, Baoliu]Beijing Univ Technol, Inst Ecocivilizat Studies, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China

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Source :

COMPUTATIONAL ECONOMICS

ISSN: 0927-7099

Year: 2025

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count:

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 17

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