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Author:

Fu, Jiaqian (Fu, Jiaqian.) | Sun, Yuying (Sun, Yuying.) | Li, Yunhe (Li, Yunhe.) | Wang, Wei (Wang, Wei.) | Wei, Wenzhe (Wei, Wenzhe.) | Ren, Jinyang (Ren, Jinyang.) | Han, Shulun (Han, Shulun.) | Di, Haoran (Di, Haoran.)

Indexed by:

EI Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

The power generation of distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems often suffers interference due to shadows cast by surrounding buildings. To improve the accuracy of PV power forecasts, this paper presents a PV power prediction method that takes shadow effects into consideration. Firstly, a convenient PV shadow model was formulated for predicting the proportion of PV shaded (PPS), using theoretical derivation and a zoning shading judgment strategy. Subsequently, a PV power prediction method was proposed based on PV shadow forecasting and the convolutional deep neural network algorithm. Finally, this method was applied to a carport PV system in a building in Beijing, China, and SHAP analysis was utilized for the interpretation. The results show that the proposed method can automatically recognize shadow conditions, and significantly improve the predictive accuracy of PV power, reducing the MAE by 10.1 % and increasing the R2 value from 0.91 to 0.94. The ranking of feature importance to the PV power prediction model is as follows: solar radiation, hour, ambient temperature, PPS, and relative humidity. This study offers a feasible solution for predicting power generation of PV systems that are subject to shadow shading from buildings. © 2025

Keyword:

Photovoltaics Prediction models

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Fu, Jiaqian]Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
  • [ 2 ] [Sun, Yuying]Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
  • [ 3 ] [Li, Yunhe]Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
  • [ 4 ] [Wang, Wei]Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
  • [ 5 ] [Wang, Wei]Information and Safety Engineering, Beijing Institute of Petrochemical Technology, No.19 Qingyuan Road, Daxing District, Beijing; 102627, China
  • [ 6 ] [Wei, Wenzhe]Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
  • [ 7 ] [Ren, Jinyang]Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
  • [ 8 ] [Han, Shulun]Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
  • [ 9 ] [Di, Haoran]Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China

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Source :

Renewable Energy

ISSN: 0960-1481

Year: 2025

Volume: 245

8 . 7 0 0

JCR@2022

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count: 2

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 11

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