The　transportation　sector　is　the　main　contributor　of　carbon　emissions　in　China.　The　article　predicted　the　activity　level　of　the　transportation　sector　from　2021　to　2035　by　collecting　relevant　information　on　population,　economy,　and　transportation　in　each　province　and　city　from　2000　to　2020,　and　forecasted　the　activity　level　of　the　transportation　sector　from　2021　to　2035　by　incorporating　with　the　planning　policies　that　have　been　enacted　in　each　province　and　city.　The　emission　factor　method　and　the　scenario　analysis　method　were　adopted　to　estimate　the　CO2　emissions　of　different　transport　sectors　in　different　scenarios　for　the　eastern,　central,　and　western　regions,　and　a　comparative　carbon　emission　reduction　potential　was　analyzed.　Results　show　that　the　carbon　emissions　of　China’s　transport　sector　under　the　baseline　scenario　exhibits　a　continuous　growth　trend,　and　the　scenario　with　the　greatest　potential　for　carbon　emission　reduction　is　the　scenario　of　adjusting　the　transport　structure,　which　can　reduce　carbon　by　721　million　tonnes　by　2035.　Under　this　scenario,　the　road　sector　has　a　greatest　potential　for　carbon　emission　reduction,　the　emission　reduction　effect　from　high　to　low　is　the　eastern　region,　the　western　region,　the　central　region,　the　aviation　sector　has　the　potential　for　emission　reduction　only　in　the　central　region,　and　the　emission　reduction　potentials　of　the　railways　and　the　waterway　sector　are　all　negative　under　this　scenario.　The　railroad,　aviation　and　waterway　sectors　have　greater　emission　reduction　potential　under　the　optimization　of　the　energy　structure　scenario,　which　will　reduce　emissions　by　49.　30%,　20.　53%　and　15.　66%　in　2035,　respectively.　Under　this　scenario,　the　railway　sector　has　superior　emission　reduction　effects　in　the　eastern　region　in　the　short　term,　and　greater　emission　reduction　potential　in　the　central　region　in　the　long　term,　while　the　aviation　sector’s　emission　reduction　potentials　are　better　in　the　east　and　west,　and　the　emission　reduction　effect　of　the　waterway　sector　is　more　significant　in　the　eastern　region.　©　2025　Beijing　University　of　Technology.　All　rights　reserved.