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Author:

Fu, Sibao (Fu, Sibao.) | Li, Yongwu (Li, Yongwu.) | Sun, Shaolong (Sun, Shaolong.) | Li, Hongtao (Li, Hongtao.)

Indexed by:

SSCI EI Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

The volatility of exchange rate is very important to a country's trading. Accurately forecasting exchange rate time series appears to be a challenging task for the scientific community on account of its nonstationary and nonlinear structural nature. In order to improve the performance of exchange rate forecasting, this study develops two evolutionary support vector regression models to forecast four typical RMB exchange rates (CNY against USD, EUR, JPY and GBP), and employs four evaluation criteria to assess the performance of outof-sample exchange rate forecasting. In this study, the evolutionary algorithm optimizes the SVR parameters by balancing search between the global and local optima. However, the inputs of models are selected though phase space reconstruction method from historical data of exchange rate series. The empirical results demonstrate that our proposed evolutionary support vector regression outperforms all other benchmark models in terms of level forecasting accuracy, directional forecasting accuracy and statistical accuracy. As it turns out, our proposed evolutionary support vector regression is a promising approach for RMB exchange rate forecasting. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Keyword:

Evolutionary support vector regression Exchange rate forecasting Phase space reconstruction Genetic algorithm Particle swarm optimization

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Fu, Sibao]Beijing Univ Posts & Telecommun, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100876, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Li, Yongwu]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Econ & Management, Res Base Beijing Modern Mfg Dev, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Sun, Shaolong]Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Sun, Shaolong]Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Sun, Shaolong]City Univ Hong Kong, Sch Data Sci, Kowloon, Tat Chee Ave, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Li, Hongtao]Lanzhou Jiaotong Univ, Sch Traff & Transportat, Lanzhou 730070, Gansu, Peoples R China

Reprint Author's Address:

  • [Li, Yongwu]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Econ & Management, Res Base Beijing Modern Mfg Dev, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China

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Source :

PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS

ISSN: 0378-4371

Year: 2019

Volume: 521

Page: 692-704

3 . 3 0 0

JCR@2022

ESI Discipline: PHYSICS;

ESI HC Threshold:123

JCR Journal Grade:2

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 35

SCOPUS Cited Count: 46

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 17

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