• Complex
  • Title
  • Keyword
  • Abstract
  • Scholars
  • Journal
  • ISSN
  • Conference
搜索

Author:

Zhao, L. (Zhao, L..) | Mbachu, J. (Mbachu, J..) | Zhang, H. (Zhang, H..)

Indexed by:

Scopus

Abstract:

Construction cost index has been widely used to prepare cost estimates, budgets, and bids for construction projects. It can also be regarded as an indicator of cost level, which makes it valuable to public authorities for understanding the conditions in the construction industry. Accurate forecasting of future construction cost index is essential for construction industry at both micro- and macro-level. To improve the accuracy of the cost forecasting, time series modeling techniques are adopted in this study. The performance of the exponential smoothing models and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for forecasting the building cost of five categories of residential building (one-story house, two-story house, town house, apartment, and retirement village building) in New Zealand is compared. Exponential smoothing models can produce more accurate forecasts for cost series of the one-story house and two-story house in New Zealand, while seasonal ARIMA models outperform exponential smoothing models across the cost series for town house, apartment, and retirement village building. This study contributes toward the development of the current state of knowledge in the area of cost index forecasting for New Zealand and provides insights that should be valuable from the practitioner perspectives. © The Author(s) 2019.

Keyword:

ARIMA model; exponential smoothing model; forecasting performance; New Zealand; Residential building costs

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Zhao, L.]College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
  • [ 2 ] [Mbachu, J.]Faculty of Society & Design, Bond University, Gold Coast, QLD, Australia
  • [ 3 ] [Zhang, H.]College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China

Reprint Author's Address:

  • [Zhao, L.]College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Beijing University of TechnologyChina

Show more details

Related Keywords:

Related Article:

Source :

International Journal of Engineering Business Management

ISSN: 1847-9790

Year: 2019

Volume: 11

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 0

SCOPUS Cited Count: 8

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 0

Online/Total:821/10657740
Address:BJUT Library(100 Pingleyuan,Chaoyang District,Beijing 100124, China Post Code:100124) Contact Us:010-67392185
Copyright:BJUT Library Technical Support:Beijing Aegean Software Co., Ltd.