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Author:

Zhang, Z. (Zhang, Z..) | Liang, T. (Liang, T..)

Indexed by:

Scopus

Abstract:

The short-term forecasting of passenger flow on the metro platform is the decision-making basis and technical support for the operation and management of metro. In this paper, we developed an improved Kalman filter model to forecast short-term (15 min) passenger fluctuations after analyzing the characteristic of metro platform. The model illustration was conducted on the island, side, regular, and transfer metro platform in Beijing, respectively. Compared with the traditional Kalman filter model, the results showed that the average absolute error of the model was 0.299, the mean square error was 34.094, and the equal coefficient was 0.923, indicating that the proposed model could effectively predict the short-term passenger on the metro platform. Compared with the traditional Kalman filter method, the model presented in this paper can improve the real-time prediction accuracy and reduce the average absolute error by 0.448. These insights will help build more prosperous and sustainable metro systems. © ASCE.

Keyword:

Kalman filter; Short-term passenger flow forecasting; Subway

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Zhang, Z.]Beijing Key Laboratory of Traffic Engineering, Beijing Univ. of Technology, No. 100, Pingleyuan, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100125, China
  • [ 2 ] [Liang, T.]Beijing Key Laboratory of Traffic Engineering, Beijing Univ. of Technology, No. 100, Pingleyuan, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100125, China

Reprint Author's Address:

  • [Liang, T.]Beijing Key Laboratory of Traffic Engineering, Beijing Univ. of Technology, No. 100, Pingleyuan, China

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Source :

CICTP 2019: Transportation in China - Connecting the World - Proceedings of the 19th COTA International Conference of Transportation Professionals

Year: 2019

Page: 2789-2801

Language: English

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count: 3

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 3

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