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学者姓名:陈东升
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Abstract :
为探究碳中和目标下减排措施对粤港澳大湾区臭氧(O_3)形成的潜在影响,我们重点研究了粤港澳大湾区城区和郊区的O_3浓度和敏感性变化。本文基于中国未来排放动态评估模型(Dynamic Projection model for Emissions in China,简称DPEC)提供的“双碳”目标下的排放情景数据,采用WRF-SMOKE-CMAQ空气质量模式,分别模拟了我国2020年、2030年和2060年这三个关键节点年份的O_3浓度,并利用内嵌于CMAQ的DDM(Decoupled Direct Method)模块计算了各地O_3对NO_x和VOC的一阶敏感系数■,以揭示O_3对这两种主要前体物排放的响应敏感程度。研究表明:(1)对于O_3浓度的变化,从不同季节来看,与2020年相比,粤港澳大湾区地区2030年和2060年冬季O_3浓度均呈上升趋势。从不同城市来看,与其他城市相比,深圳的O_3浓度一直处于明显的上升趋势。(2)对于O_3敏感性的变化,■整体呈上升趋势,且负值区域逐渐减少,正值区域逐渐扩大。2030年■负值绝对值下降,NO_x滴定作用减弱。2060年,粤港澳大湾区大部分地区■转化为正值。对■来说,未来情景中研究区域全年均为正值且整体呈下降趋势。
Keyword :
粤港澳大湾区 粤港澳大湾区 未来趋势 未来趋势 CMAQ-DDM CMAQ-DDM 臭氧敏感性 臭氧敏感性
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GB/T 7714 | 郝江虹 , 李悦 , 赵莹 et al. 碳中和背景下粤港澳大湾区臭氧浓度及敏感性变化(英文) [J]. | Journal of Resources and Ecology , 2024 , 15 (01) : 204-213 . |
MLA | 郝江虹 et al. "碳中和背景下粤港澳大湾区臭氧浓度及敏感性变化(英文)" . | Journal of Resources and Ecology 15 . 01 (2024) : 204-213 . |
APA | 郝江虹 , 李悦 , 赵莹 , 程沁毓 , 赵秀勇 , 陈东升 . 碳中和背景下粤港澳大湾区臭氧浓度及敏感性变化(英文) . | Journal of Resources and Ecology , 2024 , 15 (01) , 204-213 . |
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Combined PM2.5 and O-3 pollution in China has caused negative health impacts on residents and reduced crop yields. The quantitative assessment and prediction of these impacts could provide a scientific basis for policy development. This study assessed the nationwide premature mortality, health effects, and crop damage attributable to PM2.5 and O-3 pollution in 2019, and projected the associated health and agricultural losses under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario for 2025. The economic benefits of improving air quality under different policy scenarios, including the 14th Five-Year Plan (FFP), Secondary Standard Limit (SSL), and Primary Standard Limit (PSL), were also explored. The results showed PM2.5 pollution in 2019 resulted in 246,000 all-cause premature deaths and the economic health loss was RMB 196.509 billion. Similarly, O-3 pollution caused 186,300 premature deaths and the economic health loss was RMB 155.807 billion. O-3 pollution has led to a loss of 28.5241 million tonnes of crop production and an economic loss of RMB 62.268 billion. Compared with 2019, the avoidable premature deaths from PM2.5 under different scenarios in 2025 were 50,600, 43,000, and 200,300 cases, respectively, exceeding the number of avoided premature deaths from O-3 pollution. Compared with the BAU, reducing PM2.5 under different scenarios could generate economic benefits of RMB 70.178 billion, RMB 60.916 billion, and RMB 229.268 billion. Furthermore, the FFP scenario outperformed the SSL in mitigating winter wheat production losses caused by O-3 pollution. These results provide important scientific support for the development and evaluation of future comprehensive pollution control measures for PM2.5 and O-3.
Keyword :
crop damage crop damage scenario analysis scenario analysis combined PM2.5 and O-3 pollution combined PM2.5 and O-3 pollution human health human health
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GB/T 7714 | Luan, Ying , Guo, Xiurui , Chen, Dongsheng et al. Assessment and Prediction of Health and Agricultural Impact from Combined PM2.5 and O3 Pollution in China [J]. | SUSTAINABILITY , 2024 , 16 (17) . |
MLA | Luan, Ying et al. "Assessment and Prediction of Health and Agricultural Impact from Combined PM2.5 and O3 Pollution in China" . | SUSTAINABILITY 16 . 17 (2024) . |
APA | Luan, Ying , Guo, Xiurui , Chen, Dongsheng , Yao, Chang , Tian, Peixia , Xue, Lirong . Assessment and Prediction of Health and Agricultural Impact from Combined PM2.5 and O3 Pollution in China . | SUSTAINABILITY , 2024 , 16 (17) . |
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Abstract :
为探究碳中和目标下减排措施对粤港澳大湾区臭氧(O3)形成的潜在影响,我们重点研究了粤港澳大湾区城区和郊区的O3浓度和敏感性变化.本文基于中国未来排放动态评估模型(Dynamic Projection model for Emissions in China,简称DPEC)提供的"双碳"目标下的排放情景数据,采用WRF-SMOKE-CMAQ空气质量模式,分别模拟了我国2020年、2030 年和2060年这三个关键节点年份的O3浓度,并利用内嵌于CMAQ的DDM(Decoupled Direct Method)模块计算了各地O3对NOx和VOC的一阶敏感系数SO3_NOx和SO3_VOC,以揭示O3对这两种主要前体物排放的响应敏感程度.研究表明:(1)对于O3浓度的变化,从不同季节来看,与2020年相比,粤港澳大湾区地区2030年和2060年冬季O3浓度均呈上升趋势.从不同城市来看,与其他城市相比,深圳的O3浓度一直处于明显的上升趋势.(2)对于O3敏感性的变化,SO3_NOx整体呈上升趋势,且负值区域逐渐减少,正值区域逐渐扩大.2030年SO3_NOx负值绝对值下降,NOx滴定作用减弱.2060年,粤港澳大湾区大部分地区SO3_NOx转化为正值.对SO3_VOC来说,未来情景中研究区域全年均为正值且整体呈下降趋势.
Keyword :
臭氧敏感性 臭氧敏感性 CMAQ-DDM CMAQ-DDM 未来趋势 未来趋势 粤港澳大湾区 粤港澳大湾区
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GB/T 7714 | 郝江虹 , 李悦 , 赵莹 et al. 碳中和背景下粤港澳大湾区臭氧浓度及敏感性变化 [J]. | 资源与生态学报(英文版) , 2024 , 15 (1) : 204-213 . |
MLA | 郝江虹 et al. "碳中和背景下粤港澳大湾区臭氧浓度及敏感性变化" . | 资源与生态学报(英文版) 15 . 1 (2024) : 204-213 . |
APA | 郝江虹 , 李悦 , 赵莹 , 程沁毓 , 赵秀勇 , 陈东升 . 碳中和背景下粤港澳大湾区臭氧浓度及敏感性变化 . | 资源与生态学报(英文版) , 2024 , 15 (1) , 204-213 . |
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Abstract :
船舶排放是影响沿海地区空气质量的重要因素。在向岸风的作用下,船舶排放对沿海地区大气污染物的不利影响更加显著。然而,已有研究仅仅基于特定时间范围内以及特定站点的情况,针对全年长时间序列以及不同季节,向岸风的发生频率以及对船舶排放传输的影响还尚未完全了解。因此,本研究选择长三角地区作为目标研究区域,使用WRF/Chem (The Weather Research and Forecast model coupled with Chemistry)模型来探究2018年向岸风影响下,船舶排放对沿海地区PM_(2.5)的影响。结果表明:(1)向岸风影响下,船舶排放对PM_(2.5)的贡献较全年平均贡献和非向岸风影响下的贡献更为显著,尤其是在沿海地区。向岸风时段,船舶排放对PM_(2.5)的贡献值在上海市和宁波市可分别达到9.3μg m~(–3)和7.4μg m~(–3),分别为全年平均值的1.8和1.3倍。(2)在向岸风时段,船舶排放对PM_(2.5)的贡献不仅在沿海地区显著增加,在内陆地区的贡献也较为明显。在中部地区距海岸线200 km处,船舶排放对PM_(2.5)的贡献值在向岸风时段为4.5μg m~(–3),而全年平均值仅为2.5μg m~(–3)。(3)在向岸风影响下,船舶排放对PM_(2.5)的影响呈现出明显的季节差异。在向岸风的影响下,冬季船舶排放对PM_(2.5)的贡献较其他季节大。在夏季,船舶排放对PM_(2.5)的贡献,在向岸风与非向岸风时段的差异最大。在春季,即使向岸风发生频率最低,但船舶排放对PM_(2.5)的影响仍较大。仅考虑年均或者月均的情况下,船舶排放对PM_(2.5)的贡献可能往往被低估,这将不利于重污染时期对船舶排放的精准防控。本研究结果将有助于理解向岸气流存在时,船舶排放传输特征,并为沿海空气污染控制和管理提供参考。
Keyword :
PM_(2.5) PM_(2.5) 船舶排放 船舶排放 长三角地区 长三角地区 WRF/Chem WRF/Chem 向岸风 向岸风
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GB/T 7714 | 赵莹 , 李悦 , 马怡哲 et al. 中国长三角地区船舶排放对PM_(2.5)的贡献:向岸气流的影响(英文) [J]. | Journal of Resources and Ecology , 2023 , 14 (05) : 991-1000 . |
MLA | 赵莹 et al. "中国长三角地区船舶排放对PM_(2.5)的贡献:向岸气流的影响(英文)" . | Journal of Resources and Ecology 14 . 05 (2023) : 991-1000 . |
APA | 赵莹 , 李悦 , 马怡哲 , 程沁毓 , 郝江虹 , 赵秀勇 et al. 中国长三角地区船舶排放对PM_(2.5)的贡献:向岸气流的影响(英文) . | Journal of Resources and Ecology , 2023 , 14 (05) , 991-1000 . |
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Civil aviation transport is a key area of fossil energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission, and it is also an important source of air pollutants; the emissions of these have caused severe environmental problems. In this paper, we estimated the emissions in 235 domestic civil airports, and predicted the future trends of CO2 and air pollutant emissions from civil aviation in China until 2050 under three scenarios. The co-reduced emissions of each measure were evaluated by using the co-control effects coordinate system. The results show that in 2018, the emissions of CO2, NOx, SO2, CO, PM and HC were 117.23 x 10(6) tons, 90.47 x 10(4) tons, 14.37 x 10(4) tons, 9 x 10(4) tons, 1.29 x 10(4) tons and 0.66 x 10(4) tons, respectively. CO2, NOx, SO2 and PM emissions were mainly concentrated in cruise mode, accounting for 87-93% of the total emissions; HC and CO emissions were more frequently from the LTO. Under the baseline scenario, the growth rate of air pollutant emissions will account for a greater share, from 84% in 2030 to 464% in 2050, whereas the general scenario reduces emissions by 15% and 71%, respectively, and a higher reduction of 26% and 93% is seen in the stringent scenario. Improving aviation fuels is the most significant co-reduction measure, which can reduce CO2 by 89% and 68% in 2030 and 2050, and reduce air pollutants by 86-89% and 62-65%, respectively.
Keyword :
CO2 emissions CO2 emissions co-reduction of emissions co-reduction of emissions scenario analysis scenario analysis aviation sector aviation sector air pollutants air pollutants
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GB/T 7714 | Guo, Xiurui , Ning, Chunxiao , Shen, Yaqian et al. Projection of the Co-Reduced Emissions of CO2 and Air Pollutants from Civil Aviation in China [J]. | SUSTAINABILITY , 2023 , 15 (9) . |
MLA | Guo, Xiurui et al. "Projection of the Co-Reduced Emissions of CO2 and Air Pollutants from Civil Aviation in China" . | SUSTAINABILITY 15 . 9 (2023) . |
APA | Guo, Xiurui , Ning, Chunxiao , Shen, Yaqian , Yao, Chang , Chen, Dongsheng , Cheng, Shuiyuan . Projection of the Co-Reduced Emissions of CO2 and Air Pollutants from Civil Aviation in China . | SUSTAINABILITY , 2023 , 15 (9) . |
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Abstract :
船舶排放是影响沿海地区空气质量的重要因素.在向岸风的作用下,船舶排放对沿海地区大气污染物的不利影响更加显著.然而,已有研究仅仅基于特定时间范围内以及特定站点的情况,针对全年长时间序列以及不同季节,向岸风的发生频率以及对船舶排放传输的影响还尚未完全了解.因此,本研究选择长三角地区作为目标研究区域,使用WRF/Chem(The Weather Research and Forecast model coupled with Chemistry)模型来探究 2018年向岸风影响下,船舶排放对沿海地区PM2.5的影响.结果表明:(1)向岸风影响下,船舶排放对PM2.5的贡献较全年平均贡献和非向岸风影响下的贡献更为显著,尤其是在沿海地区.向岸风时段,船舶排放对PM2.5的贡献值在上海市和宁波市可分别达到 9.3 μg m-3 和 7.4 μg m-3,分别为全年平均值的 1.8和1.3倍.(2)在向岸风时段,船舶排放对 PM2.5 的贡献不仅在沿海地区显著增加,在内陆地区的贡献也较为明显.在中部地区距海岸线200 km处,船舶排放对PM2.5的贡献值在向岸风时段为4.5 μg m-3,而全年平均值仅为2.5 μg m-3.(3)在向岸风影响下,船舶排放对 PM2.5 的影响呈现出明显的季节差异.在向岸风的影响下,冬季船舶排放对 PM2.5 的贡献较其他季节大.在夏季,船舶排放对PM2.5的贡献,在向岸风与非向岸风时段的差异最大.在春季,即使向岸风发生频率最低,但船舶排放对PM2.5的影响仍较大.仅考虑年均或者月均的情况下,船舶排放对PM2.5的贡献可能往往被低估,这将不利于重污染时期对船舶排放的精准防控.本研究结果将有助于理解向岸气流存在时,船舶排放传输特征,并为沿海空气污染控制和管理提供参考.
Keyword :
PM2.5 PM2.5 WRF/Chem WRF/Chem 船舶排放 船舶排放 长三角地区 长三角地区 向岸风 向岸风
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GB/T 7714 | 赵莹 , 李悦 , 马怡哲 et al. 中国长三角地区船舶排放对PM2.5的贡献:向岸气流的影响 [J]. | 资源与生态学报(英文版) , 2023 , 14 (5) : 991-1000 . |
MLA | 赵莹 et al. "中国长三角地区船舶排放对PM2.5的贡献:向岸气流的影响" . | 资源与生态学报(英文版) 14 . 5 (2023) : 991-1000 . |
APA | 赵莹 , 李悦 , 马怡哲 , 程沁毓 , 郝江虹 , 赵秀勇 et al. 中国长三角地区船舶排放对PM2.5的贡献:向岸气流的影响 . | 资源与生态学报(英文版) , 2023 , 14 (5) , 991-1000 . |
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Background: ship emissions have an adverse effect on air quality in coastal regions, and this effect can be exacerbated by onshore winds. Objectives and methods: to investigate the impact of ship emissions on air pollutant concentrations during the onshore wind period in a low-latitude region in China, this study applied the WRF/Chem model to simulate the contribution of ship emissions to PM2.5 and O-3 by "zero-out" in 2018, in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA). Results/findings: results show that the onshore winds facilitated the transport of ship-emitted pollutants to inland areas, causing the contribution of ship emissions to PM2.5 exceeding 4 mu g/m(3) to areas north of Guangzhou in April and west of the GBA in October. The impact of onshore winds on the ship contribution to the O-3 concentration shows a bidirectional trend both spatially and monthly. The onshore winds raised the ship contribution to O-3 concentrations in April by 1.54 mu g/m(3), while exacerbated the decreasing contribution in other months. In VOC-sensitive cities such as Foshan, onshore winds exacerbated the negative contribution of ship emissions to O-3 concentrations; while in NOx-sensitive cities such as Huizhou, they enhanced the contribution of ship-induced O-3. Novelty/Improvement: this paper fills a gap in the study of pollutants transportation characteristics from ship emissions under the influence of onshore winds in the GBA. Our results demonstrate the importance of considering meteorological conditions and atmospheric chemical mechanisms regarding the coastal air pollution prevention caused by ship emissions.
Keyword :
WRF/Chem WRF/Chem PM2.5 PM2.5 ship emissions ship emissions GBA GBA onshore wind onshore wind
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GB/T 7714 | Cheng, Qinyu , Wang, Xiaotong , Chen, Dongsheng et al. Impact of Ship Emissions on Air Quality in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA): With a Particular Focus on the Role of Onshore Wind [J]. | SUSTAINABILITY , 2023 , 15 (11) . |
MLA | Cheng, Qinyu et al. "Impact of Ship Emissions on Air Quality in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA): With a Particular Focus on the Role of Onshore Wind" . | SUSTAINABILITY 15 . 11 (2023) . |
APA | Cheng, Qinyu , Wang, Xiaotong , Chen, Dongsheng , Ma, Yizhe , Zhao, Ying , Hao, Jianghong et al. Impact of Ship Emissions on Air Quality in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA): With a Particular Focus on the Role of Onshore Wind . | SUSTAINABILITY , 2023 , 15 (11) . |
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China has started to focus on the reduction in pollutants from diesel vehicles with high emission intensities in recent years. Therefore, it is essential and valuable to conduct a deep and detailed exploration of the reduction potential from diesel vehicles and compare the abatement effect from different control measures in upcoming decades. This study attempted to estimate the present emissions of four conventional pollutants from diesel vehicles by applying the Computer Program to Calculate Emissions from Road Transport (COPERT) model, and to predict the future emission trends under different scenarios during 2019-2030, taking the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region as the case study area. In addition, we analyzed the emission reduction potential of diesel vehicles and compared the reduction effects from different control measures. The results showed that the CO and NOX emissions from diesel vehicles in this region could increase by 104.8% and 83.9%, respectively, given no any additional control measures adopted over the next decade. The largest emission reduction effect could be achieved under the comprehensive scenario, which means that vehicular diesel emissions in 2030 could decrease by 74.8-94.0% compared to values in 2018. The effect of emission reduction under the emission standards' upgrade scenario could cause a gradual increase and achieve a 19.8-82.6% reduction for the four pollutants in 2030. Furthermore, the new energy vehicle promotion scenario could achieve a considerable reduction effect. It could also offer better emission reduction effects under the highway to railway scenario for Tianjin and Hebei provinces. The old vehicle elimination scenario could have a considerable reduction effect, but only in the short term. Furthermore, emission reductions could be mainly influenced by heavy diesel trucks. These results can provide scientific support to formulate effective reduction measures to diesel vehicles for policy makers.
Keyword :
scenario analysis scenario analysis road diesel vehicles road diesel vehicles emission reduction potential emission reduction potential
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GB/T 7714 | Guo, Xiurui , Liu, Yao , Chen, Dongsheng et al. Prediction of Emission Reduction Potential from Road Diesel Vehicles in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) Region, China [J]. | ATMOSPHERE , 2022 , 13 (5) . |
MLA | Guo, Xiurui et al. "Prediction of Emission Reduction Potential from Road Diesel Vehicles in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) Region, China" . | ATMOSPHERE 13 . 5 (2022) . |
APA | Guo, Xiurui , Liu, Yao , Chen, Dongsheng , Gong, Xiaoqian . Prediction of Emission Reduction Potential from Road Diesel Vehicles in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) Region, China . | ATMOSPHERE , 2022 , 13 (5) . |
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Ships, sailing in favorable wind or obstructed by wind, will operate with different output power of the engines, and the exhaust emissions will be different even though the ships are sailing at the same ground speed. In this study, the influence of wind was taken into consideration; the ship emission inventory (0.025 degrees x0.025 degrees) in China of a full year (2014) was reassessed. A speed modification model was employed to figure out the actual output speed of ships by integrating AIS data and the hourly wind. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model was applied to predict the hourly real-time wind field. The spatial and temporal changes in emissions between the results calculated by the proposed method and our previous study were presented. Overall, when considering the influence of wind, the total ship emissions for the year would increase. In this study, the total estimated emissions of SO2, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, HC, and CO in the area were 1.286 x 10(6), 2.583 x 10(6), 2.135x 10(5), 1.967 x 10(5), 1.522 x 10(5), and 3.053 x 10(5) t(metric tons) in 2014, respectively. Under the influence of wind, the proportion of the regions' emissions to the total was close to that of the previous study. For SO2 and NOx, emissions presented significant monthly variations. On a monthly timescale, the difference in emissions was more obvious between the results considering and not considering the wind, relative to that on a yearly basis. This study adjusted the method of ship emission estimation, which modified the ship emission inventory over an hourly timescale.
Keyword :
industrial ecology industrial ecology wind fields wind fields ship emissions ship emissions AIS AIS China China Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model
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GB/T 7714 | Fu, Xinyi , Chen, Dongsheng , Guo, Xiurui et al. Improving the estimation of ship emissions using the high-spatiotemporal resolution wind fields simulated by the Weather Research and Forecast model: A case study in China [J]. | JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY , 2022 , 26 (6) : 1871-1881 . |
MLA | Fu, Xinyi et al. "Improving the estimation of ship emissions using the high-spatiotemporal resolution wind fields simulated by the Weather Research and Forecast model: A case study in China" . | JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY 26 . 6 (2022) : 1871-1881 . |
APA | Fu, Xinyi , Chen, Dongsheng , Guo, Xiurui , Lang, Jianlei , Zhou, Ying . Improving the estimation of ship emissions using the high-spatiotemporal resolution wind fields simulated by the Weather Research and Forecast model: A case study in China . | JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY , 2022 , 26 (6) , 1871-1881 . |
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Abstract :
Ship-exhausted air pollutants could cause negative impacts on air quality, climate change, and human health. Increasing attention has been paid to investigate the impact of ship emissions on air quality. However, the conclusions are often based on a specific year, the extent to which the inter-annual variation in meteorological conditions affects the contribution is not yet fully addressed. Therefore, in this study, the Weather Research and Forecast model and the Community Multiscale Air Quality model(WRF/CMAQ) were employed to investigate the inter-annual variations in ship-contributed PM2.5 from 2010 to 2019. The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region in China was selected as the target study area. To highlight the impact of inter-annual meteorological variations, the emission inventory and model configurations were kept the same for the 10-year simulation. We found that: (1) inter-annual meteorological variation had an evident impact on the ship-contributed PM2.5 in most coastal cities around YRD. Taking Shanghai as an example, the contribution varied between 3.05 and 5.74 mu g/m(3), with the fluctuation rate of similar to 65%; (2) the inter-annual changes in ship's contribution showed a trend of almost simultaneous increase and decrease for most cities, which indicates that the impact of inter-annual meteorological variation was more regional than local; (3) the inter-annual changes in the northern part of YRD were significantly higher than those in the south; (4) the most significant inter-annual changes were found in summer, followed by spring, fall and winter.
Keyword :
Yangtze River Delta Yangtze River Delta PM2.5 PM2.5 WRF/CMAQ WRF/CMAQ inter-annual meteorological variation inter-annual meteorological variation ship emission ship emission
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GB/T 7714 | Chen, Dongsheng , Liang, Dingyue , Li, Lei et al. The Temporal and Spatial Changes of Ship-Contributed PM2.5 Due to the Inter-Annual Meteorological Variation in Yangtze River Delta, China [J]. | ATMOSPHERE , 2021 , 12 (6) . |
MLA | Chen, Dongsheng et al. "The Temporal and Spatial Changes of Ship-Contributed PM2.5 Due to the Inter-Annual Meteorological Variation in Yangtze River Delta, China" . | ATMOSPHERE 12 . 6 (2021) . |
APA | Chen, Dongsheng , Liang, Dingyue , Li, Lei , Guo, Xiurui , Lang, Jianlei , Zhou, Ying . The Temporal and Spatial Changes of Ship-Contributed PM2.5 Due to the Inter-Annual Meteorological Variation in Yangtze River Delta, China . | ATMOSPHERE , 2021 , 12 (6) . |
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